EDITORIAL: Will Harris bow to pressure on general-election date?

There is no doubt that Fine Gael has seen a bounce in its popularity since Simon Harris took office earlier this year. The latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks opinion poll has the party sitting on 25 percent, and the common consensus seems to be that the Taoiseach will eventually bow to pressure from his party colleagues and call a general election for November after the announcement of Budget 2025, which is due to take place on October 1.
With the party set for its last get-together before the budget this week, to be held in Offaly, some are keen to leave with a date confirmed, with early November favoured. There is a sense among some that Fine Gael’s strong polling cannot be guaranteed later into the winter, so the Taoiseach would be wise to call an election shortly after a budget that is expected to bring with it a number of measures around the cost of living and taxation.
The Irish Examiner reported on Monday that a Fine Gael source said it would be ‘bonkers’ not to go to the public before Christmas on the back of a budget that will be ‘pitched at middle-income earners’.
The newspaper also said that another party source has said they had ‘got it wrong’ in the past by calling elections in February or March, and that the Taoiseach should not allow a post-Christmas malaise set in among the public.
However, Mr Harris has long maintained that he would not call an early election and many who have spoken to him say that his thinking remains unchanged.

Election selections
Last week, the Taoiseach told an Ibec dinner that the coalition would run until March.
He told the room of business leaders that most people ‘haven’t given much thought’ to the next general election.
He said: “In reality I know most people haven’t given much thought to who they’re voting for in the next general election. I’ve met thousands of people over the last few months and the date of the general election is the last thing on their mind.”
Fine Gael has been making selections for candidates to contest the next election ahead of an internal deadline later this month.
The party last week chose eight candidates to run in the general election, bringing the total number of selections so far to 42. Meanwhile, candidates have said that they are aware of the need to ‘be ready’ to contest an election within weeks.
The party’s Mayo convention is set to take place this Sunday and it will indeed be very interesting to see how many candidates will actually let their name go forward.
Fianna Fáil have now made it clear they will only run two candidates after their convention in Castlebar last Friday evening. Councillors Brendan Mulroy and Damien Ryan both withdrew their names in order to back the team of sitting TD Dara Calleary and Senator Lisa Chambers, who lost her seat in the last general election.

Risky strategy
The strategy does seem very risky considering the fact that Fine Gael’s huge vote getter Michael Ring is now retiring and leaving some 15,000 first preference votes up for grabs. Not running a candidate in the west Mayo area means Fianna Fáil will be expecting Lisa Chambers to pick up number ones all along the western seaboard, but will voters in the coastal region just vote to keep a TD in their area?
It does seem like Michael Ring is endorsing the candidacy of Fine Gael newcomer Keira Keogh, but is there a chance that Fine Gael HQ will just allow two candidates be chosen at convention, and perhaps then decide to endorse a high-profile third candidate like Martina Jennings, the current CEO of Mayo Roscommon Hospice. Sitting TD Alan Dillon is the only certainty to be chosen at convention. The other names currently in the mix are Westport’s Keira Keogh; new councillor in Ballyhaunis, Alma Gallagher; current Cathaoirleach of Mayo County Council, John O’Hara and former TD, Michelle Mulherin.
Things should become clearer after Sunday’s Fine Gael convention, but the doubt surrounding the date of general election could mean that we may have to wait another number of weeks before we know who exactly will be on the ballots.