Calling it right on Saturday night

THE tallies and the first count always put an end to the wild speculation that surrounds the closing days of every election campaign. The hard figures are there in front of you and it is up to seasoned observers to make the calls at that stage.

Around 9.20pm on Saturday night of last week, I was joined by Seán Egan from Knock as we took our seats opposite Gerry Glennon in the Midwest studio in Ballyhaunis. Both of us had been keeping a close eye on the figures in the previous few hours and following the coverage on radio and online from the local newspapers.

I always believe that listeners are not too interested in the intricacies of the voting system and the only thing they need to hear is a straight-forward assessment of the lie of the land. After welcoming us to the studio for the late night coverage of the five Connacht constituencies, Gerry asked me for my assessment of how things stood in Mayo.

We all knew at that stage that Rose Conway Walsh (Sinn Fein), Alan Dillon (Fine Gael), and Dara Calleary (Fianna Fail) were ‘over the line’. In response to Gerry’s question, I felt the time was right to make a 'call' in the same manner as they do on Fox News and CNN in America when they feel confident enough of the eventual outcome.

I cut straight to the chase: “Keira Keogh will take the fourth seat for Fine Gael and the last seat will be fought out between Patsy O’Brien (Ind) and Paul Lawless (Aontú). The votes are there in the south-east Mayo region for the fifth seat.”

Seán Egan lent his full support to that analysis. While others were speculating on the possibility of Lisa Chambers and Mark Duffy progressing towards a seat and not even calling it for Keira Keogh, it was clear to us that their race on this occasion was over.

Obvious scenario

THE bookies had Rose, Dara and Mark among the favourites from the outset but it was abundantly clear to me that there was no way that the North Mayo region (Erris and Ballina) could return three out of five. It was always going to be two from that region and it amazed me that so many ‘pundits’ failed to see that scenario.

Over the last three weeks I kept saying to anyone who asked me that Keira Keogh would take a seat. Being based over here in the south-east of Mayo, several people said they knew nothing about Keira and, subsequently, did not rate her chances. Anyone with Michael Ring 100 percent behind her and coming out of Westport town had to be a strong contender.

In essence, the only question remaining for me was would Castlebar secure two seats or would the south-east take the last seat. That question was answered when I saw that Lisa Chambers only managed around 2,300 votes from the Castlebar Electoral Area compared to 6,000 for Alan Dillon.

At that stage there was absolutely no way for Lisa to secure a second Fianna Fáil seat so it was clear that south-east Mayo would elect a TD. Since the votes of Martina Jennings and Gerry Murray would not see them leap-frog Patsy O’Brien or Paul Lawless, the final seat was destined to stay in 'our' region between those two.

Splendid job

WHEN the Returning Officer, Anne Marie Courell (who did an absolutely splendid job) rightly halted proceedings before midnight, Patsy O’Brien was around 1,000 ahead of Paul Lawless and looked to be in a good position to see it through.

Stephen Kerr, an Independent candidate from the Breaffy (Castlebar) area who polled a highly credible 3,289 first preference votes, edged 27 votes ahead of Martina Jennings (FG) from Hollymount on the 4th count.

It was widely expected that Patsy O’Brien, who hails from the same parish, would benefit substantially from Martina’s votes. He only received 575 with almost 2,300 going to the other three Fine Gael candidates with Alan Dillon being the chief beneficiary with 1,000 followed by Keira Keogh with over 700.

The distribution of Stephen Kerr’s votes played a key role in the destination of the last seat. Paul Lawless secured an amazing 1,420 catapulting him into pole position to win a seat. Patsy O’Brien managed a significant transfer of 523 but the other major development was that the 546 votes secured by Rose Conway Walsh from Kerr had put her 151 over the quota.

This meant that the votes of her running mate, Gerry Murray, were no longer in play for her and so geography once again took over. Paul Lawless from east Mayo was the huge beneficiary and secured another batch of 1,036. It was game over and Paul Lawless, the 32-year-old from Knock who is a teacher in Ballyhaunis Community School, was sensationally on his way to Dail Éireann, to join his party leader, Peadar Tóibín from Meath.

Patsy O’Brien (Ind) ended up in 6th place with 8,258 that marked an extraordinary campaign by the man from Robeen. His interview on Midwest Radio on Sunday evening and his speech at the end of the count were among the most gracious heard in some time. He will have walked tall all around south Mayo this week.