Battle royale likely for final seat

Political opinion
Michael Commins

JUST seventeen days of canvassing are left before we go to the polls on February 26. And for the first time in many election campaigns, I have to admit that there is not much of a buzz to the campaign here in Mayo.
The butchering of the county and the transfer of a large section of the Mayo electorate into Galway West feels almost sacrilegious in a political manner. We are not the only county that feels that way. Imagine how some voters in South Donegal and West Cavan feel by being transferred into Sligo-Leitrim.
Well, I suppose we are where we are, and we just have to get on with it. Almost all political observers will concur with the sentiment that only one seat is really up for grabs here in Mayo. An Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, and Michael Ring are expected to sail home for Fine Gael. Dara Calleary is the front runner for Fianna Fail.
The betting odds for the Mayo constituency show Kenny, Ring and Calleary rolling down the Leinster House road well out of view of the chasing pack. As someone who has followed and reported on elections in Mayo for 35 years, I have to concur with these conclusions.
The odds also tend to suggest that outgoing Fine Gael TD, Michelle Mulherin, is favourite to shade the fourth seat, ahead of Lisa Chambers of Fianna Fail and Rose Conway-Walsh of Sinn Fein in that order. In other words, the battle for the final seat looks like being a battle royal between the three women.
Paddy Power has Michael Farrington from Kiltimagh, the Renua candidate, in 7th place, but the odds seem to have been posted before the entry of Dr Jerry Cowley, the former Independent TD into the race. All the other candidates, with the exception of Tom Moran (Anti-Austerity Alliance at 50/1) are listed at odds of 80/1 or more. (These include Peter Jordan, George O’Malley, Gerry O’Boyle and Margaret Sheehan).

All out effort
We can expect an all-out effort by Fine Gael, who polled an astonishing 65 percent in Mayo in 2011, to bring Michelle Mulherin safely over the finishing line. Party strategists are feverishly working on the division of territories. It is interesting to note that while Claremorris, Ballindine and Irishtown has been assigned to Michael Ring and Enda Kenny will have Kiltimagh and Ballyhaunis, Aghamore and Tooreen is being assigned by Fine Gael to Michelle Mulherin. The party is putting an almost military-style strategy in place to manage the vote and also to ensure surplus transfers from Kenny and Ring will minimize leakage of FG votes.
Can Lisa Chambers from the Castlebar area be the candidate battling with Mulherin for the fourth seat? Opinion polls still show Fianna Fail in the very low 20s but I suspect they will be a few percentage points higher here in Mayo. High enough to challenge strongly for a second seat? I don’t know. It all depends on where Lisa is on the first count in relation to Rose Conway-Walsh and one or two others who may put in a strong challenge yet.
Lisa has to be helped by the fact that Cllr Michael Kilcoyne, who polls almost 5,000 votes as an Independent in 2011, is not running this time. Michael secures the vast bulk of his votes in the Castlebar electoral area so one must assume that a certain amount of these votes will end up with Lisa this time.
Rose Conway-Walsh will get votes in every box in the Mayo constituency. She is an able and personable candidate and will attract votes outside the normal Sinn Féin base. As a councillor she is well got with many in Fine Gael and Fianna Fail and is pragmatic and highly regarded as a competent and passionate supporter for all things relating to Mayo.

Strong performance
I expect a strong performance from the Ballycroy woman and, should she fail narrowly on this occasion, she will surely be odds-on to take a seat next time when both Enda Kenny and Michael Ring will, in all likely-hood, will not be seeking re-election.
The entry of Dr Jerry Cowley may dent the first preference votes of both Michael Ring and Rose Conway-Walsh more than other candidates but it remains to be seen if his campaign can gain momentum in the next two weeks. If it fails to take off in a major way, Jerry’s votes will revert to where they would have gone had he not thrown his hat in the ring.
Kiltimagh native Michael Farrington is flying the flag for new party, Renua, spear-headed by Dublin-based TD and Claremorris native, Lucinda Creighton. Lucinda was elected on the Fine Gael ticket in 2011.
Michael, an accountant, is an able and highly competent candidate for the fledgling party. His uncle, the late Tom Higgins, came close to winning a Council seat for Fine Gael back in the 1990s when Kiltimagh was in the Claremorris Electoral area. Michael is also a nephew of well known Mayo GAA official, Mick Higgins from Kiltimagh, a family with deep roots in Fine Gael.
The fact that Fine Gael has no regional candidate in South or East Mayo leaves the way open for Michael to attract a decent vote. He is also putting in a strong campaign and had a good team of canvassers at the Mayo v Dublin NFL game in Castlebar on Saturday night.
Still, the focus for the last seat remains mainly on Michelle, Rose and Lisa. Michelle is still the favourite … but the ballot box is always liable to turn up some unexpected surprises. That’s the beauty and fairness of the PR voting system in comparison with the ‘first past the post’. And thank God we got rid of the electronic voting. Seeing is believing ...and long live the peann luaidhe (pencil)!