EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS: Where will the Mayo senior final be won?

FORTY-FOUR years ago, Garrymore beat Castlebar Mitchels to win their last county senior title. On Sunday at 3.30pm in Hastings Insurance MacHale Park, the same two clubs meet again for a chance to lift the Moclair Cup.

Today, Mayo’s All-Ireland-winning Performance Analyst, Barry McGuire, casts his eye over the various statistics and trends that have carried the teams to Sunday’s decider - and he states which side the numbers dictate will get their hands on the big silver cup.

THE ROAD TO MACHALE PARK

CASTLEBAR are 31-time champions, back in a final for the first time since 2017. Garrymore have been underdogs almost every step of the way. They opened by taking down four-in-a-row-chasing Ballina, the shock of the first weekend, and they haven't lost since. Nobody gave them much of a chance in August. Nobody is writing them off now.

Mitchels have been the more convincing side. They beat Balla 2-16 to 0-10, ended Ballina's reign 1-17 to 1-10, and after a round-three defeat to Garrymore saw off Aghamore 0-19 to 1-10 and Breaffy 1-16 to 0-14. All four wins came by five points or more.

Garrymore have done it the hard way. Wins over Ballina, Balla and Castlebar were followed by two nail-biters: 0-14 to 0-12 against Crossmolina, then 2-16 to 2-15 against Belmullet after extra time. Five games, five wins, and a habit of finding a way.

HOW THEY SCORE:

NEITHER finalist is the county's highest-scoring side. Castlebar rank sixth of the 16 teams with 18.8 points per game, and Garrymore are eleventh on 17 points per game. Both have scored four goals, joint-tenth for green flags.

The key difference between the two sides is in how they score. Castlebar kick 12 one-pointers a game, fourth best in the county. Garrymore go for the long ball more: their 2.6 two-pointers a game ranks fifth, with Castlebar ninth on 2.2.

Then there's accuracy. Across the ten games I’ve analysed, Castlebar have turned 62% of their shots into scores, the best of any team in those games. In comparison, Garrymore have managed 46%. Inside the 20m line it's 79% against 54% in favour of Castlebar.

FORWARDS V DEFENCES

CASTLEBAR’S attack is a committee. Fifteen different players have scored, and Joe Forry, Cian Walsh, Neil Douglas and James Durcan all have between 0-11 and 1-11 to their names. Nobody carries more than 15% of the load. Garrymore lean on Darren Quinn, whose 0-23 is 27% of their scoring total.

Defensively, these are the two meanest defences in the championship. Garrymore concede 13.6 points a game, the fewest of all 16 teams, with Castlebar next on 13.8, and both have let in just two goals, with Garrymore conceding those in the semi-final against goal-hungry Belmullet. Castlebar keep teams out: only 29 of the 120 shots against them have come from inside the 20m line. Garrymore let teams attack and then suffocate them. 

THE KICK-OUT BATTLE

THIS could decide Sunday’s battle. Rory Byrne has been in excellent form in the championship so far. Castlebar keep 72% of their own kickouts, including 22 of 23 short. Garrymore keep 58% and go long more than half the time. In round three, Garrymore kept 11 of 15 and Castlebar just 13 of 23.

THE LAST MEETING

GARRYMORE won 0-19 to 0-14 in round three. Both sides converted 57% of their shots, the only game this championship where anyone matched Castlebar's accuracy. The difference was ball security: Castlebar gave it away 29 times, well above their average of 23. Quinn kicked 0-6, and Walsh was held to just a point. On of the biggest questions to be answered on Sunday, who learned most from this encounter. 

KEY BATTLES

Castlebar's attack versus Garrymore's defence 

This is the heavyweight contest. Mitchel’s forward line has firepower everywhere and they are deadly once they get close to goal. Garrymore are happy to let teams come close, but they swarm the shooter once they get there. Opponents score just 32% of their shots under heavy pressure from the Garrymore defence. Garrymore already held the Castlebar attack to 0-14 once. Can they do it twice?

Garrymore's attack versus Castlebar's defence

Garrymore's scores run through Darren Quinn (0-23) and long-range kicking. On Sunday, this will straight into the defence best built to stop it. Castlebar keep teams out of the scoring zone, and opponents have landed just one in five two-point attempts against them. Donnacha McHugh and Paddy Durcan will have to keep Quinn quiet without giving away frees, because Quinn punishes those too.

The battle for the middle third

Kickouts and breaking ball could decide who gets to feed their forwards. Rory Byrne's restarts are Castlebar's best weapon where he can vary length. Garrymore are dogged around the middle where they win 69% of the breaking ball on opposition kickouts. 

That puts both midfields in the thick of every restart: Bob Tuohy and Ultan O'Reilly for Castlebar, against Gary Golden and Enda Hession, who often roams from the half-forward line, for Garrymore. 

Worth noting: Castlebar's only defeat came in round three, the one game where Tuohy and O'Reilly didn't start together. If Castlebar get clean ball, their forwards will be fed. If it's a scramble, Garrymore will fancy it.

Lynskey versus Byrne 

Brian Lynskey has conceded two goals all campaign with just one goal in normal time. Rory Byrne's kickouts are Castlebar's best weapon. Shot stopping against distribution could go a long way to deciding this tie.

WHAT SWINGS IT?

FOR CASTLEBAR: Clean kickouts, patience to work their scores, and far fewer turnovers than in round three. Do that and their accuracy should tell.

FOR GARRYMORE: Turn the middle third into a scrap, win the breaking ball, keep the two-pointers coming and don’t give away anything cheap in front of goal. They've been doing it to favourites all summer.

PREDICTION

AN extremely close contest where I feel Mitchels have a slight edge with a 55% chance of a win and coming out a point ahead 16 points to 15. That's as close to a coin flip as a final gets. Castlebar's accuracy and spread of scorers should just about tell, but Garrymore have spent all championship proving forecasts wrong, and they've beaten Castlebar once already.

VERDICT: Castlebar Mitchels by a point.