What will government negotiations mean for Mayo?

MAKING HER DEBUT New Mayo TD, Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh, pictured on her first day in Leinster House last week with, from left: Pearse Doherty, TD and supporters Joe McHale, Seosamh Ó Maolchroin, Cllr Gerry Murray and Fiona Conway.

There is much that was spoken about in the DΡil on Thursday last which people will disagree with.
Depending on your political persuasion, you will pick holes in the comments and rhetoric of Leo Varadkar, MicheΡl Martin and Mary Lou McDonald.
And – if you are one of those rare people in modern society that tries to analyse matters objectively – you might even have found fault with all three.
But there is one thing MicheΡl Martin said no one can refute.
The Fianna FΡil leader observed that this is the most diverse DΡil in the history of the State.
Never has the largest party been so small. Never has there been three parties so closely bunched at the top of Irish politics.
However it remains to be seen if any Government formed will be as diverse as the inter-party government of 1948-1951, Ireland’s first coalition government. Fine Gael, the Labour Party, Clann na Poblachta, Clann na Talmhan, the National Labour Party and Independents all banded together, put differences to one side, to end 16 years of Fianna FΡil rule.
They had to unite if they wanted change as Fianna FΡil were just six seats short of a majority.
It will be a long time, if ever, before any Irish party are able to form a Government on their own. Fianna FΡil were the last to do so, from 1987-89. Since then it has been coalitions although Fine Gael came mightily close in 2011, when Enda Kenny led them to a record 76 seats and they formed a strong majority coalition with Labour.
Even those numbers of just nine years ago seem a million miles off in the current climate with Fianna FΡil holding 38 seats, Sinn Féin 37 and Fine Gael 35.
All of which means forming a Government will be far from straightforward and is proving so.
Fianna FΡil and Fine Gael’s refusal to engage with Sinn Féin is a calculated gamble. It remains to be seen whether it will strengthen them or weaken them at the next election, whenever that will be.
If Sinn Féin do not go into Government, which looks likely right now, then it is hard to envisage them being any weaker electorally at the next election, especially when it has not been by their own design.

Will FF and FG unite?
The big debate is whether Fianna FΡil and Fine Gael will come together to lead a coalition.
That the two parties combined can not muster a majority is something that would have been unheard of after any other election in Irish history. That’s the unchartered waters Irish politics is in right now. Consider that in November 1982, the two parties combined took 145 out of the 166 seats on offer.
If they do agree to come together, they will still need eight more TDs to hit the magic number of 80 needed for a majority. Bear in mind Fianna FΡil’s working number is now 37, with their TD SeΡn Ó Fearghaíl re-elected as Ceann Comhairle.
The Green Party’s 12 seats looks the most fertile but the big hurdle is will Fine Gael and Fianna FΡil form a historic coalition?
It would mean short-term gain in terms of going into Government but no matter what they might say about acting in the national interest, it will likely hurt them in the next election.
Will it be a step too far for too many in both parties? It remains to be seen.
And what will any such a coalition mean for Mayo’s TDs?
It is quite likely Ballina’s Dara Calleary, Fianna FΡil’s deputy leader, would be a senior minister. It remains to be seen if Westport’s Michael Ring could hold onto his cabinet seat with Fine Gael having only access to less than half of the cabinet seats in any such arrangement.
But, at the very least, he would expect to be a minister for state.
Newly elected TD Alan Dillon would certainly have to contend himself with a place on the back benches while such an arrangement would place fellow new TD Rose Conway-Walsh as the only Mayo TD on the opposition benches.
It is a moot point now but looking at the contenders for Fianna FΡil ministries, it seems quite likely defeated candidate Lisa Chambers would have found herself in the mix for consideration for a senior ministry if she was elected.
For Mayo and the west it is important to have strong, committed voices for the region. Not to conduct parish pump politics, which has been a stain on Irish political life for far too long.
But to fight for the region’s fair share, to ensure there is balanced regional development. In short, for fairness for the west, something off denied this region in the history of the State.
Mayo’s four TDs are undoubtedly capable voices for the county but with so much uncertainty over what Government might take place, they might find themselves just as likely back on the campaign trail as in seats of influence.