GUEST COLUMN: The case for local gas exploration

The Irish Government’s review, Energy Security in Ireland 2030, acknowledges the ongoing reliance on natural gas, yet it inexplicably rejects the potential of local gas as an energy resource for the future. This report is simply committing Ireland to imports, interdependence and increased emissions.
International energy markets are tumultuous at best, due to the war in Ukraine. Energy as a weapon of war is no longer the purview of James Bond movies, it is a real with real consequences for a small open economy like ours. Other EU member states are changing their policies to remain agile to the shifting seas; in Germany, Italy and in the UK, we have seen many changes to adapt to the geopolitical tensions around us pertaining to energy.
While we all accept and respect that we will one day live in a society where renewable energy can meet our society and business needs, a recent report from KPMG on behalf of the Irish Wind Energy Association reveals that even the industry does not think that is possible in terms of the pace and scale of change required. In crossing a raging river, it is never a sensible strategy to burn all bridges unless there is certainty of having a rescue boat available. The boats are still at the planning and design stage, and we haven’t yet learned how to swim! Unless we act urgently and sensibly the future will continue to be very challenging.
It would appear that in navigating the challenging energy transition, Ireland’s current strategy is, metaphorically speaking, to burn the transitional energy bridge of local gas, when there is no realistic or reliable alternative available.
It is disappointing that the minister’s consultants who wrote the review have ignored the submissions of the industry on local gas’s potential contribution to Ireland’s energy security. Any schoolchild understands that raspberries from Wicklow have a lower carbon footprint that those from Peru, and the same is true for local gas.
Indigenous natural gas has supplied Ireland with invaluable secure energy supplies since the Kinsale field came on stream in 1978. Between Kinsale and Corrib, gas has supplied over 3 trillion cubic feet to Irish consumers. There is potential for the same amount again of local low-carbon gas to be discovered near Corrib, which should not be ignored.
At the report launch press conference, Minister Ryan said: “The idea that we go out into the Atlantic, and it’s about €100 million a well drilling, where the odds of finding something are 30, 40, 50 to one, is just not a sane investment or sane decision for any Government.” Minister Ryan’s concerns on investment cost are a red herring in this argument. It is important to point out that exploration and development offshore Ireland involves no Government investment – all costs are borne by industry.
The odds of a discovery as presented by the minister are also incorrect, as are the projected lead in times from discovery to production. There have been 14 exploration or appraisal wells drilled in the Slyne Basin, where Corrib is located. Five of the seven exploration wells were either discoveries or encountered significant hydrocarbon shows. All of the appraisal wells encountered gas. Based on these statistics, the chances of success for an exploration well in the basin are closer to one in two or three, rather than one in 30 to 50. There are several promising, undrilled prospects close to the Corrib field which are completely ignored in the Report.
The lead time for development of subsea tiebacks, such as those likely for discoveries near Corrib, is likely to be in the range of 2-4 years. However, even major standalone gas and oil development projects can have very short lead times. The Zohr gas field offshore Egypt is a giant field 30 times larger than Corrib, and in much deeper waters. Discovered in August 2015 it came on stream just three years later, in Q4 of 2018. Rapid development of new strategic gas resources is possible with a supportive Government.
Beyond the timing, cost and viability of new exploration and development potential of gas close to the existing Corrib infrastructure, the report acknowledged that a substantial natural gas find could enhance our security of supply.
The life-cycle carbon impact of any indigenous gas is expected to be significantly less than imported gas. The representative body for the industry has previously demonstrated that Corrib gas has an emission intensity that is approximately one fifth of that for produced natural gas in the UK North Sea and one thirteenth of that from LNG imported from Qatar to Europe. It is highly probable that any further gas discoveries in the vicinity of Corrib would have similarly low emission intensities.
Yet this important environmental impact factor in support of using local gas is inexplicably ignored in the report – and more importantly is consistently ignored by Government.

Brian Ó Catháin is Chair of the Irish Offshore Operator’s Association (IOOA)