Politics, parties and polls

Áine Ryan

WHETHER it is held in November or February next, the political parties have long been on a General Election footing with party-political polls testing the mood of the electorate. However, no matter how scientific they claim to be, the results of two internal party-political polls significantly vary in the newly aligned four-seater constituency of County Mayo.
One such poll, seen by The Mayo News, shows Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Fianna FΡil’s Dara Calleary heading the posse at 21 percent. The fact that Minister for State Michael Ring is trailing them at almost 17 percent is somewhat of a surprise.
Sinn Féin’s Cllr Rose Conway-Walsh is hot on the heels of Deputy Ring at almost 16 percent while the undeclared Independent Cllr Michael Kilcoyne is polling at 10 percent in this poll which questioned 1,000 respondents from across the county during the summer. Finally, Fianna FΡil’s Cllr Lisa Chambers and sitting Fine Gael TD, Michelle Mulherin returned just a  six percent first preference.
However, another party political poll shows Minister Ring topping it.
Cllr Kilcoyne told The Mayo News yesterday that in this poll, which also returns Enda Kenny and Dara Calleary, he is fighting for the last seat with Lisa Chambers (FF) and Rose Conway-Walsh (SF) with Deputy Mulherin biting at their heels.
While there are no surprises expected at the Fine Gael Election convention, which is set to be held in the MacWilliam Hotel, Claremorris, on Monday next, Michael Kilcoyne last night still declined to formally declare if he will put his name forward on the ticket. What he has confirmed though is that it will be as an Independent, despite ongoing contacts from Renua, the Independent Alliance led by Deputy Shane Ross, the recently formed Social Democrats and First Independent Mayo.
He told The Mayo News he would confirm his intentions before Christmas and that his record speaks for itself.
Looking to the make-up of the next DΡil, Cllr Kilcoyne said: “No matter when the election is held – in November or the spring – I believe this coalition will not have an overall majority. I predict Fine Gael and Labour will get about 70 seats and not reach the 81 they need. So they will seek support from either Independents or Fianna FΡil, from the outside. Then, something controversial will happen, a vote of no confidence will be tabled and Fianna FΡil will be forced to withdraw its support. So the next Government will not last its full term,” he said.        

Independents pact
MEANWHILE, First Independents Mayo, which says it will field three to four candidates, has confirmed it has entered a transfer pact with Mr Kilcoyne if he runs.
“In discussions with Michael Kilcoyne and to encourage him, First Independent Mayo will not be facilitating a Castlebar candidate, should Michael run. We have also discussed a vote transfer agreement with him to ensure an outcome similar to the outcome in the Roscommon South Leitrim by-election where the end result will be at least one Independent TD for Mayo. Likewise Michael Kilcoyne has agreed to encourage his voters to transfer to those independents who are closest to his political philosophy,” a statement by the alliance confirmed.
Its declared candidates are George O’Malley, Ritchie O’Donnell and either Martin Daly or Peter Jordan. The alliance says it may also field a Ballyhaunis-Claremorris-Charlestown based candidate.
The last Irish Times Ipsos-MRBI poll, carried out last month, stated that the Mayo constituency would return three Fine Gael TDs and one Fianna FΡil.