Big parties biggest losers in online poll

Big parties biggest losers in online poll


Analysis
Ciara Moynihan

The Mayo News Election 2014 Online Survey (Page 20, Election 2014 supplement) was carried out over six days on www.mayonews.ie. If its results are anything to go by, voter sympathy has very much swung towards the Independents, which claimed 44.3 percent of respondents’ first preferences.
However, it is worth bearing in mind that a full 16 independents are standing, and so that 44.3 percent could be split multiple times. That said, the swing towards non-affiliated candidates could be read as an indication of a growing disillusionment with all the parties, of a rejection of both the Government parties and those in opposition.
In the 2009 local election, Fine Gael received 44.4 percent of first-preference votes in Mayo. In our poll, they received 18.6 percent of first preferences. That would be a significant drop: Almost 42 percent of its Mayo vote would have been lost.
According to our poll, Fianna FΡil votes looks set to fall too, although the drop is not quite so precipitous. In 2009, it received 29.65 percent of the Mayo vote. In our poll, the party is now down over 8 percent, to 21 percent. The party appears even less popular in opposition than it was in Government, failing to gain the the vote dividend that often attaches to the opposition benches.  
Historically, Labour has never done well in Mayo, but its small 3.07 percent share of the vote in 2009 has dropped to a crushing 0.9 percent in The Mayo News pre-election survey. The spectre that haunts minority parties in government has reared its head once more. In an almost poetic symmetry, the last party to have been in minority in a coalition government, the Green Party, also came in at 0.9 percent in our poll.
The only party to have achieved an upswing in our poll is Sinn Féin. In 2009, the party received just 7.21 percent. In our poll, it has increased its standing to 10.9 percent. It’s by no means a tsunami, but in light of the leakage experienced by the other parties, the gain is certainly significant.
Could it signify a move to the left among Mayo voters? In our survey, 18.9 percent said they were centre left, and 15.4 percent said they were leftwing. Taken together, that’s 34.3 percent saying they lean to the left. Meanwhile, 25.7 percent of respondents said they were centre right, and 6.3 percent said they were rightwing. That’s 32 percent leaning to the right.  
This ‘left majority’ could be interpreted as changed voter sentiment in what has often been described as a right-leaning county, but it should be pointed out that 33.7 percent of respondents said ‘Don’t know’ when asked what political outlook they have. Perhaps these voters are issue-driven, cherry picking their ideology depending on the matter at hand. It could also be argued that the lack of a firm ideology underpinning many of the parties has led to a confusion among the electorate.
Predictably enough, given the economic collapse and its aftermath, matters financial were top of mind among our survey respondents. When asked ‘What issue will most affect your vote?’, the lion’s share, 34.4 percent, said ‘Jobs’, while 20.8 percent chose ‘Taxes’. In close third, at 17 percent, was ‘Infrastructure (broadband, roads etc)’. Just 8.2 percent of respondents chose ‘Health’, with a diminutive 3.3 percent choosing ‘Environment’ and 2.7 percent choosing ‘Education’. Hospitals, pylons, gas tunnels and special needs assistants, it would seem, are taking a back seat, with the austerity-weary public perhaps more concerned about their back pocket.
A final word on merit. When asked ‘What’s more important to you, the party or the politician?’, two out of three (66 percent) said the politician was more important. When asked whether a candidate’s gender would sway their vote, a resounding 91.7 percent of respondents said ‘No’. It seems that Mayo voters value, above all else, the merits of the individual candidates.

As with all polls, The Mayo News Election 2014 Online Survey is not scientific and carries a margin of error of approximately 4.5 percent. For the full results, see the back page of our 20-page Election 2014 supplement.