Much to ponder for Kenny

Much to ponder for Kenny

ANALYSIS
Michael Duffy

IT may well be the biggest single selling factor for Fine Gael in Mayo ahead of Election 2007 and although it is clear that having the Taoiseach living in our midst is a very attractive proposition, there is much to ponder for Enda Kenny judging from the result of The Mayo News/Millward Brown IMS Poll.
As part of the poll, respondents were asked three separate questions in relation to Deputy Kenny’s performance as leader and his prospects of taking over from Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach.
The results make for very interesting reading indeed. There can be no doubt that on a national scale, the Fine Gael leader’s star has risen at an opportune time and finally, after a tough five years in the position, the Castlebar man has assumed an air of authority among his peers and is seen as a genuine contender for the country’s top political job.
But has he impressed his constituents with the job he has done as leader of the opposition?
Our poll reveals that 63 per cent were ‘satisfied’ with his performance, 21 per cent ‘dissatisfied’ and 16 per centhad no opinion or didn’t know.
This, on the face of it, is a respectable enough performance but the one worrying factor for Deputy Kenny is that of the respondents who voted first preference for Fine Gael, only 69 per cent replied ‘satisfied’ with his leadership performance, which means three in every ten Fine Gael voters in Mayo remain unconvinced of Enda Kenny’s ability to lead the party.
Another slightly worrying trend emerges for Kenny when the question ‘Who is your preference for Taoiseach following the next General Election?’ is posed.
Millward Brown IMS conducted a poll in September 2006 in the Mayo constituency and asked the very same question, to which 47 per cent answered Enda Kenny.
However, this time round just 45 per cent answered Enda with 38 per cent preferring Bertie Ahern.
Given the increase in Enda’s popularity nationwide, one would have expected this to be reflected in his home constituency so it is a big surprise that his popularity has actually fallen.
This decrease takes on even more importance when it is revealed that preference for Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach has risen 4 per cent in the same period in Mayo, from 34 to 38 per cent. This means only seven per cent of the Mayo public would rather Enda Kenny than Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach. Ask yourself, if this question was asked in Dublin Central, how far would Bertie be ahead of Enda?
Again, Bertie fares better among his own party voters in relation to being next Taoiseach. 69 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters want Bertie to be Taoiseach in comparison to 63 per cent of Fine Gael voters wanting Enda to be Taoiseach.
Some might find it hard to fathom that 22 per cent of first preference Fine Gael voters don’t want Enda Kenny as Taoiseach but this might well be explained by the fact that a lot of Michael Ring’s first preference vote is not an historical Fine Gael vote. Back in 1994, a large band of the traditional Fianna Fáil vote went to Michael Ring and these followers appeared to have stayed loyal to the Westport man.
Overall, there can be no doubting that the ‘Taoiseach’ factor is weighing heavily on the minds of the Mayo electorate - and it is a difficult predicament they find themselves in.
Having the Taoiseach living in the county would undoubtedly bring added clout at the cabinet table but if Fine Gael don’t get into power,  are we again likely to miss out if we only elect one Fianna Fáil deputy?
With recent polls indicating that there is a swing towards Enda Kenny’s party nationwide, the likelihood here in Mayo is that the floating voter will jump on the ‘Enda bandwagon’ in the hope that he will be the one putting the next Government together. It seems guaranteed that confidence in Enda Kenny’s ability to be leader of this country is likely to increase locally in the run-up to the General Election.