Big two could face disappointment

Big two could face disappointment

Party changes
Michael Duffy

HOW times have changed. Just three elections ago Fianna Fáil were the kingmakers in Mayo,    maintaining their stranglehold over politics in the county and taking four out of the six seats available in Mayo East and West.
Fast forward five years to 1997 and Fine Gael take advantage of the redrawing of the constituency to claim the upper hand, taking three seats to Fianna Fáil’s two.
In 2002, we finally see an Independent candidate upset the total domination of Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael in the constituency and the results of The Mayo News/Millward Brown IMS poll clearly show this election could see support for the ‘big two’ eroded even further.
The remarkable conclusion of the poll is that only Fine Gael’s star duo of Enda Kenny and Michael Ring will actually reach the quota in a constituency which is clearly one of the tightest of the 43 in the country.
Those of you who think this is not feasible should take a look at the result from the now defunct Longford/Roscommon constituency in 2002 where Denis Naughten was the only one of the four candidates elected to exceed the quota.
The result of this poll means eight candidates will be targeting those last three seats and all will harbour what they feel are realistic ambitions.
But what will be highly worrying for both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is that they have garnered sizeable first preference percentages and ultimately failed to achieve their goals by ousting either of the Independents, Beverley Flynn or Jerry Cowley.
Both of these candidates look to ultimately hold the key to this election and in the poll it is their ability to attract transfers from all corners of the county and from all other candidates that sees them home ahead of their rivals.
That’s the factor that will be worrying the strategists in both the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael camps this week. For this election to be heralded a success for either of the ‘Big Two’, Fine Gael need to win three seats and Fianna Fáil need to win two. Both would comfortably settle for a net gain of one seat each, but the results of this poll mean it looks highly unlikely that both Cowley and Flynn will lose their seats.
Looking first at Flynn, she has to be pleased with this result as it looks likely she will increase her first preference, and the loss of the Fianna Fáil brand would seem to have increased her popularity among the floating voters, most of whom turned to Cowley in 2002.
We also have to factor in the likelihood that a lot of the Mayo public feel that Beverley Flynn has been hard done by - and one cannot help but draw a comparison with Michael Lowry in Tipperary, who increased his first preference by 4,000 votes in 1997 after being thrown out of the Fine Gael party.
Beverley is unlikely to receive that sort of fillip but, as the poll demonstrates, the transfers she receives are substantial, allowing her to clinch the fourth seat ahead of the bloodbath that emerges for the final seat. She collects 25 per cent of Ring’s surplus, 15 per cent of Kenny’s surplus, almost a third of Frank Chambers’ transferable votes and even 20 per cent of Gerry Murray’s votes. Overall, it looks highly likely that Beverley Flynn will be only the third Independent to be elected to the Dáil from Mayo in 46 years (Joe Leneghan was elected in Mayo North in 1961, followed by Cowley last time round).
The poll paints a very different picture for the sitting Independent, Jerry Cowley, who in his heart of hearts knew that a repeat showing of his staggering first preference vote from 2002 was never going to happen. The fact that his vote has halved in the poll is hugely worrying for the doctor but the other candidates in the mix for the final seat have to be afraid of Cowley’s ability to attract transfers, which ultimately enables him to see off the challenge of Dara Calleary.
Like Beverley, Cowley takes large chunks of the surplus of Ring and Kenny, (20 and 25 per cent, respectively) although surprisingly, he only takes just over ten per cent of Frank Chambers’ votes when he is eliminated.
In the cold light of day, supporters of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have to sit down and ask themselves: do we want our parties to be in government? If the answer to this question is yes, then they will be expected by the party faithful not to cast ANY preference for a candidate outside of their team.
In the poll, only 25 per cent of Michael Ring’s surplus actually transfers to his own party. Only 39 per cent of Enda Kenny’s surplus goes to either O’Mahony or Mulherin. Likewise, only 43 per cent of Frank Chambers’ votes transfer to either Carty or Calleary. Interestingly, 33 per cent of his transfers go to Beverley.
All these stats will be music to the ears of the Independents. The lack of a strategic plan from the ‘Big Two’ means that Flynn and Cowley will be quietly confident of repeating the findings of this poll on election day.
And let us not forget Sinn Féin, whose candidate Gerry Murray is also out to deal another blow to the established party vote in Mayo. He commands a very respectable first preference vote in this poll but, unlike Cowley and Flynn, he doesn’t get the transfers to keep him in the hunt until the very end. However, if he secures a larger than expected first preference, it is likely to be John O’Mahony who suffers most and this in turn could scupper Fine Gael’s three-seat plan.
All in all, there can be little doubt that the days of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael dominance in Mayo are well and truly behind us. The number of independents in Dáil Éireann has grown from eight to ten to 13 in the last three elections but the question now remains, will there be room for 13 independents in Dáil Éireann if the Greens and Sinn Féin make their anticipated gains? The possibility remains that, nationally, the number of independents will decrease, but here in Mayo they will take two seats.