Belmullet Electoral Area Preview

Newport is key to Belmullet outcome


THE ISSUE
Anton Mcnulty

LAST June, the Electoral Boundary Commission decided that despite already being the biggest geographical electoral area in Mayo, the Belmullet Electoral Area had to be made even bigger to justify being represented by four councillors. The boundary was redrawn which took Newport from the Westport Electoral Area as well as Ballycastle, Kilfian West and Lackan North from the Ballina Electoral Area.
While the boundary changes do not directly affect any of the declared candidates, the extra votes now available, especially in the Newport area where there are approximately 1,100 votes up for grabs, may decide who wins the last seats.
Since it was formed in 1999, the voting pattern of the Belmullet electoral area has been largely based on geography with the north of the constituency voting for their own candidates and vice versa in the south.
In the Belmullet Electoral Area, Fianna Fáil had a rare victory over Fine Gael in the 2004 election when Micheál McNamara polled ahead of fellow Achill man, Pat Kilbane. However, they didn’t make any overall gain with Frank Leneghan losing his seat to Tiernaur-based Independent candidate Michael Holmes.
This year only the sitting councillors Tim Quinn and Micheál McNamara have been confirmed as Fianna Fáil candidates with no decision made on whether they will be joined on the ticket by a third candidate. Interviews of candidates took place earlier this year with former councillor Frank Leneghan believed to be one of the candidates interviewed. While grassroots have given their preference to have a third candidate, Fianna Fáil headquarters have the final say.
The Fine Gael candidates were chosen at a convention held in Belmullet last January and they include an experience field of outgoing councillor Gerry Coyle, former councillor Pat kilbane and Údaras representative Ian McAndrew. The other candidates confirmed include Rose Conway-Walsh of Sinn Féin and Achill -based Independent John Corrigan.
In the north of the constituency veteran Belmullet-based councillor Tim Quinn and Geesala-based Gerry Coyle have been joined by Ian McAndrew from Belmullet. While Quinn and Coyle are favourites to retain their seats, Fine Gael will be confident that McAndrew, who is heavily involved with Belmullet GAA and with the local arts centre Aras Inis Gluaire, could well cause an upset. When he last ran in 1999, he picked up 1,012 votes, three more than his party colleague Coyle, but lost out on the seventh and final count.
In the last election, Fine Gael chose to run with only two candidates and it turned out to be a fatal decision with Kilbane unable to rely on transfers to carry him home. Despite being outpolled by Kilbane, Micheál McNamara was able to rely on the transfer of Leneghan’s vote following his elimination and Quinn’s surplus vote to get him elected. This time Fine Gael seemed to have learned from their mistakes and will hope that their candidates can use transfers to good effect and retake the second seat.
The loss of Kilbane’s seat the last time round was a major shock as the Achill man had built up a high profile having been elected at every local election since 1979. However, he has managed to maintain a certain amount of profile through his work as Chairman of Mayo VEC.
His tussle with McNamara will be one of the real battles of the election, and he could have an advantage with Newport coming into the electoral area. He will have experience of canvassing in the area when the Achill area was part of the Westport constituency before it moved to Belmullet.
McNamara on the other hand will hope that his ability to deliver a new bridge and the sewerage scheme to Achill Sound will be enough to convince the Achill people to vote for him again. This time round they will be competing with another Achill candidate in Independent John Corrigan, who will be hoping to pick up the undecided votes.
One of the biggest surprises in 2004 was the performance of Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh who despite starting off with a low profile almost came away with the last seat. In the meantime the Ballycroy native was remained active as co-ordinator of Belmullet based community group Iorras Le Chéile and was also on the Mayo County Council Strategic Policy Committee dealing with Planning and Economic Development.  She looks capable of increasing her first preference vote of 924 in 2004 and she should be involved in the count well into Saturday.
There is no doubt that the approximate 1,100 new votes from Newport will settle the contest in the south of the constituency, with uncertainty on where the votes will go. The majority of those votes in the past would have gone to Frank Chambers who is standing down and where his votes will make for interesting viewing.
As the only candidate from the Burrishoole parish running and a former Fianna Fáil man to boot, the front runner to eat into those votes is Michael Holmes. The Tiernaur farmer polled impressively in 2004 and was comfortably elected having lost out narrowly in 1999. McNamara will be hoping that the Fianna Fáilers in the area will remain loyal to the party while Kilbane will hope to capitalise on that split and hold on to the Fine Gael vote.

Results 2004
Electorate - 12,118
Total Poll - 7,690
Spoiled Votes - 101
Valid Poll - 7,589
Turnout - 63.46 %
Quota (Four Seats) - 1,518

Elected
Tim Quinn FF
Gerry Coyle FG
Michael Holmes IND
Michael McNamara FF