OPINION: That extra seat in Brussels

WITH the final shape of the new Dáil constituencies safely put to bed, the less-daunting task now remaining for the Electoral Commission is to decide where the extra seat in the European Parliament will be assigned.
There was some criticism that, given that the next Euro elections are only eight months away, the Commission did not deal with both issues together. But it appears that a technicality created on the part of Brussels prevented that from happening.
The Commission has invited submissions up until the end of the month for anybody who has anything to say on the matter, and it will announce its final decision a month later.
The extra seat in the European Parliament comes about by virtue of Brussels having decided to increase the size of the assembly by 15 seats, of which Ireland has been allocated one. It is up to ourselves to decide to which of the three constituencies the seat will be allocated.
As of now, Ireland’s 13 seats come from the South (5), Dublin (4), and then the sprawling Midlands-North-West (4). The last named is as unwieldy as its name suggests, stretching from Louth on the east coast to Achill Island in the west, north to Donegal and south to Galway.
It is every bit as much a made-up entity as it sounds, lacking cohesion and rationality, and serving an electorate whose disparate parts have little in common. Current speculation is that the Electoral Commission will come down in favour of the new seat going to this hybrid area, perhaps with an additional wedge of Laois and Offaly added into the mix.
By way of reminder, five years ago this electorate returned two Fine Gael candidates, Mairéad McGuinness and Maria Walsh, one Sinn Féin in Matt Carthy, and one independent, Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan. In the interim, Mairéad McGuinness was appointed EU Commissioner to replace Phil Hogan, caught up in the Golfgate scandal, and she was replaced by her colleague, Colm Markey. Matt Carthy, meanwhile, opted to return to national politics in 2020 by becoming a TD, relinquishing his seat to be replaced by Chris McManus of Sligo.
It should be noted that unlike national parliaments, the European Parliament does not hold by-elections in the case of vacancies, the positions being filled by the pre-determined ‘first subs’, nominated by each candidate in advance of the five-yearly elections.
In the meantime, aspiring candidates are limbering up in expectation that the extra seat will afford a greater chance of success when voters go to the polls next June, on the same day as the local elections will be held. Fianna Fáil in particular will be looking to improve on its dismal performance of 2019 when it failed to take any seat in greater Connacht, once the party’s traditional stronghold.
Former TD and current Senator, Lisa Chambers, is tipped to be the Fianna Fáil nominee in the Euro race; hence the obvious efforts to provide her with a regional profile across the far flung constituency and increased appearances in the national media.
If opinion polls are anything to go by, next June’s results are unlikely to mirror those of five years ago. Of the total of 13 seats in Europe, the last outing saw Fine Fael take five places, two each for Fianna Fáil and the Greens, two for Independents for Change (Clare Daly and Mick Wallace), one for Sinn Fein, and one Independent.
Sinn Fein will expect, not unreasonably, that its current surge in popularity will see those tables turned. Fine Gael will brace itself for a hit. And Fianna Fáil will count itself lucky to push its representation as high as three.