Rebels can yell in Croker – Cork to sink the Kingdom again

Rebels can yell in Croker


Punting
Michael Duffy

A NIGHTMARE last weekend for the column. Only Conal Keaney (9-2) to score a goal at anytime, and our ante-post bet on Tyrone (16-1) took the bad look off what was a poor weekend for punditry all round.
But hope springs eternal, and we reckon this Sunday’s match has thrown up the value bet of the season. We priced up this weekend’s first semi-final of the football championship as approximately ‘Kerry 4-7, Cork 13-8, Draw 7-1’ but bookmakers disagree and instead go 1-3 Kerry and a massive 11-4 about their Munster final victors.
No matter how insistent you are that Cork was rancid in the second half of their quarter-final win over Kildare, and their woeful Croke Park record against Kerry, every game is different and that 11-4 is simply too big.
All of the provincial champions struggled in the quarter-finals: Armagh were complacent, Galway ran into Kerry, while Cork and Dublin found a five-week gap since their provincial final difficult/impossible to overcome. That game should sandpaper away the rustiness in Cork’s set-up.
There will be plenty of opinion this week pointing to Kerry being majorly motivated to overturn that Munster final defeat — but there’s a far greater motivation for Cork to wipe away the memory of last September’s embarrassing All-Ireland final defeat.
Besides, there are sturdier, more tangible reasons why Cork will win. Pearse O’Neill and Nicholas Murphy can win midfield where, for Kerry, the loss of Paul Galvin’s ball-winning role will never be more greatly felt. Graham Canty will pick up Declan O’Sullivan while Anthony Lynch won’t mind tracking The Gooch — Lynch was a shade unlucky not to win man-of-the-match for his Munster final performance on the same man.
Michael Shields might be sharp enough to pick up Tommy Walsh and the big match-up is likely to happen between Derek Kavanagh and the great Kieran Donaghy.
Of course Kerry still have the class and composure up front to win the match but they go into the game with serious concerns about their defence. Daniel Bohane might get closer to Michael Cussen than Tom O’Sullivan but what happens — if, as he often does — Cussen drifts out the field? John Hayes is in All Star form and he won’t fear Padraic Reidy, while Donncha O’Connor has turned into a reliable freetaker and a real finisher.
 Put simply, while Kerry are the most likely winners, Cork should not be 11-4 shots to win. And if you believe that the key to making money at this punting game is looking for the value each time, you’re left with no option this weekend but to back Conor Counihan’s men.

Recommended
Cork 11-4 (v Kerry, Sunday).

GET ON AJAAN IN THE EBOR
NESTLED neatly between racing’s frenetic summer festivals and the lucrative autumn campaign, there’s always been room for York’s Ebor meeting.
This year that meeting is an extended one and any hope of Lush Lashes finally getting some much deserved luck in Thursday’s feature, the Yorkshire Oaks, looks to have disappeared with the weather. Jim Bolger’s filly prefers it as hard as the road and it may be wiser to side with Henry Cecil’s four-year-old, Passage Of Time. She looked something back to her best with a close third in the Nassau Stakes at Sandown. Giving weight away to both, Passage of Time could have done with a faster pace and the one-mile-four on Thursday will suit. Wednesday’s feature is, of course, the Ebor, and we give Cecil a big shout with the Niarchos-owned Ajaan. Ignore Ajaan’s last two runs because both came on ground unsuitably fast for him.
Both at Ascot and at Goodwood he refused to let himself down on the ground and trailed in to be beaten by a street. Instead look back to his form on softer ground — indeed just three runs ago his victory over Halla San (fancied for this race before being ruled out) is plenty good enough for him to figure. Cecil is well able to train stayers and his Tempelstern gave Sixties Icon plenty to think about whe failing by a nostril in the Geoffrey Greer ar Newbury last Saturday.
Ajaan’s last victory was achieved off a mark of 95 and just five pounds higher this time out, he can win this prize over a distance he is already proven at. 16-1 was available early yesterday morning but 10 is probably what will be available this morning.

Recommended
Ajaan 16-1 (Ebor, York, Wednesday). Already recommended: All The Good 20-1 (Ebor). Passage of Time 5-2 (Yorkshire Oaks, Thursday).