Opinion poll analysis shows no change in battle for Mayo seats

Anton McNulty

The four current sitting TDs in Mayo are all expected to be returned to the DΡil following the next General Election, according to constituency analysis of the latest opinion poll.
The latest national Sunday Business Post - Red C opinion showed an increase of support for Fine Gael and Sinn Féin with a drop for Independents and Fianna FΡil with Labour unchanged from the previous poll.
The tracking poll puts Fine Gael at 31 percent, up one, and at the highest level of support for the party since 2012. The nationwide survey was conducted over 1,000 voters between last Monday and Wednesday.
Fianna FΡil have dropped one point to 19 percent while Sinn Féin gained two percentage points to 18 percent. The Independents and other smaller parties are on 25 percent, a drop of two points, while Labour remain on seven percent.
The latest opinion poll continues to be good news for Fine Gael and Enda Kenny ahead of the next General Election which is widely predicted to take place in February. Adrian Kavanagh, a political analyst and lecturer in the Department of Geography in Maynooth University believes that if the current figures are reflected in the General Election, Fine Gael could win up to 68 seats and retain their three seats in the new four seater Mayo constituency.
Using his constituency level analysis of the polls figures, Mr Kavanagh predicts that Fine Gael will win 57 percent of the Mayo vote, with Fianna FΡil winning 18 percent and Sinn Féin receiving 12 percent and Independents and others on eleven percent. He also puts Labour on two percent despite the junior coalition partner having not yet put forward a candidate to run in Mayo.

Predictions
In his predictions using a d’Hondt method to determine which party wins the seats in a constituency, Mr Kavanagh predicts that Fine Gael will win three seats while Fianna FΡil will also win a seat - most probably to be the current TD, Dara Calleary.
Mr Kavanagh also took into account some allowances for the potential impact of a vote transfer pact between the two government parties and other concerns in a constituency and came up with the same results for the Mayo constituency.

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