Words to the wise

Words to the wise

Harry Barrett Lab
Harry Barrett needs to spend an evening at a vigil in Knock if he is to resuscitate his chances of election to Dáil Éireann. He looks set to be one of the unfortunate victims of Labour’s decision to run a candidate in each constituency. Despite a long-standing campaign, the Castlebar-based teacher is in danger of trailing even new Green Party entrant Peter Enright. The best he can hope for is to avoid the ‘wooden spoon’ and build a profile for a second crack at the local elections when they come round in two years time.

Dara Calleary FF
Dara Calleary, whose campaign to date has been based on Ballina getting ‘its’ TD back, may need to spread his wings in the closing stages. He must garner votes from a wider geographical area both to increase his projected first preference vote and the number of transfers he can expect. Depending on Michelle Mulherin’s predicted elimination to get him over the line may not be enough. A closer association with his running mates may be necessary to counter the impression of three unrelated Fianna Fáil campaigns.

John Carty FF
John Carty needs to work on getting a decent first preference showing outside his immediate bailiwick. Despite being the only Government TD and the absence of any Fianna Fáiler in south Mayo, he’s struggling to pick up support outside east Mayo. He also needs to shake off the impression that Government support for local projects has nothing to do with him. Finally, in what’s likely to be an extremely tight race, he needs to stem any rumours that he’s a safe bet for a second term.

Frank Chambers FF
CHAMBERS has been running the highest profile campaign to date but our poll shows him in a worse position than his final position in the election of 2002. He can’t, unlike some other candidates, be accused of hiding but people don’t seem to be buying the anti-government rhetoric from a government candidate. It needs to sound more convincing rather than just trying to be populist. And concentrating on his core area, rather than taking credit for projects in other parts of the county, won’t do him any harm either.

Jerry Cowley IND
RECEIVING support in every ballot box in 2002 has its cons. Our poll shows that Cowley gets in by the skin of his teeth but he will take absolutely nothing for granted from the poll. He will know that he has a busy few weeks ahead of him on the doorsteps. Herein lies his greatest difficulty: because he received support in every area Cowley is clearly popular all over, but Mayo is the largest geographical constituency in Ireland. He has to concentrate on core areas and hope others help him with later preferences.

Peter Enright GRN
Having entered the race late and having failed to surface publicly since his surprise ‘launch’, the signs of the Green candidate registering on the radar on polling day look slim, in spite of his two per cent showing in this week’s poll. If building his profile for future political assaults is his aim, then creating a profile would seem like a good starting point. At a time when green issues have never been more topical, staying silent on same somehow seems like an unwise move for the Dublin native.

Beverley Flynn IND
CLEARLY Flynn is in an ideal position to pick up transfers (receiving more than any other candidate) but, like Cowley, she will hope to improve her first preference vote. She has been pretty quiet in the media up to recently and while she is putting in – and always will – a good showing on the doorsteps, more people need to know what Flynn thinks on the key issues. There is no doubting her political ability but publicly showcasing it in the coming weeks should help increase her vote.

Enda Kenny FG
Castlebar’s veteran TD is facing into the most important month of his illustrious political career and, along with the setting the strategy for his party nationwide, he has to keep the home fires burning. He could possibly double his paltry first preference return from 2002 but it will be deemed a failure if he and Michael Ring cannot deliver a net ‘gain’ to their party in their home constituency. Does Enda make the hard call and direct all of his transfers to either O’Mahony or Mulherin at the expense of the other?

Michelle Mulherin FG
Some have discounted Cllr Mulherin as not being a ‘serious contender’ for that final seat but all indications are that she may well come in ahead of colleague/rival John O’Mahony on first preference votes. Initially it was perceived she was put in as a ‘spoiler’ for Dara Calleary in Ballina but she has extensive backing from her fellow FG county councillors, which can prove to be a big bonus on the campaign trail in May. She is, of course, reliant on transfers from Kenny and Ring, but that, to a certain extent, is beyond her control.

Gerry Murray SF
Having gained extensive ground in the last two months, he now hopes to utilise that momentum in the coming weeks, when we are likely to see the likes of Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and Caitríona Ruane on the hustings with Murray all over the county. His first preference is likely to be strong so the Charlestown man will now be looking to secure transfers from all corners. That will be easier said than done but his hardworking, honest and amenable attitude should stand him in good stead.

John O’Mahony FG
Leading Mayo to victory against Galway on May 20 is a must – it may not increase his vote substantially, but a loss could certainly turn the coats of some fickle green and red voters. In the meantime, upping the ante on serious issues and taking to them with Ring-like gusto might win over some floating voters. Being a constant diplomat in post-match speeches is fine; greater conviction is demanded of public representatives. Appealing to Michael Ring to pass on a few more votes is worth a shot too.

Michael Ring FG
It’s decision time for Ring: to be champion poll-topper and still on the opposition benches at the end of it or to become the consummate party man and initiate a vote management strategy that will see him bring in a third deputy for Fine Gael. He’s proven himself as the people’s favourite, a crown that won’t slip, now it’s time to prove his worth as a party man – and leave the possibility of getting a ministry in a FG-led government beyond doubt.

Compiled by Daniel Carey, Michael Duffy, Denise Horan and Edwin McGreal