Open season for transfers

Open season on the transfer market

Alternatives
Edwin McGreal

WERE the political system in Ireland a first-past-the-post system there would be nowhere near like the intrigue and drama that comes with the count. The proportional representation system ensures otherwise and if the three principles of property are location, location and location well then the crucial factor in Mayo ‘07 will be transfers, transfers and – guess what? – transfers.
The Mayo News/Millward Brown IMS poll shows, as expected, Fine Gael’s Michael Ring and Enda Kenny well ahead of the field, both with considerable surpluses. It also shows Labour’s Harry Barrett and the Green’s Peter Enright well to the back of the field.
But from the third highest placed person in our poll (John Carty at eleven per cent) to the third last in first preferences (John O’Mahony at four per cent) and the six candidates in between, nobody can be ruled safe for a seat, just as none of them can be ruled out of the running. It promises to be intriguing and fascinating long into the night and weekend in Castlebar come count time.
This poll shows that John Carty, Beverley Flynn and Jerry Cowley are the three returned to the Dál along with Kenny and Ring but it wouldn’t take a whole lot to argue the case for the next five candidates either.
Dara Calleary is the candidate who just misses out, being edged out by Cowley. Calleary received eight per cent of the first preference vote, actually putting him in fifth after the first count but his inability to pick up transfers, as opposed to the transfer machine that is Jerry Cowley, sees Calleary struggle. But there is plenty of room for improvement. Unsurprisingly, Calleary doesn’t benefit too well from Ring and Kenny’s surpluses or the elimination of Barrett and Enright.
But one vote that Calleary will be disappointed with is the elimination of Frank Chambers in this poll on the fifth count. Only six per cent of Chambers’ vote went to his Ballina party colleague; this is something that surely party strategists will attempt to reconcile, in the same way that Fine Gael will try to control Michael Ring’s vote.
Calleary does only reasonably well from the elimination of Fine Gael’s Ballina candidate Michelle Mulherin. There has been much talk of the Ballina vote needing to stay in Ballina but Calleary still only picks up 21 per cent of the vote from Mulherin, demonstrating that the Ballina candidate vote may not be as strong as one might think.
Behind the top six there is one almighty battle and if certain people are eliminated at certain times, then it can change the whole outlook, combined with even subtle improvements in first preference votes.
As this poll panned out Frank Chambers was the first to go after Barrett and Enright but the tightness of the contest was vividly demonstrated after the second count when, incredibly, Chambers, Mulherin, Murray and O’Mahony were all locked together. When he was eliminated, after five counts, Chambers was very marginally behind Gerry Murray. It wouldn’t take much for Chambers to see past Murray but transfers after this would be a problem. He needs to improve his first preference vote considerably.
Of the four candidates that were locked together after two counts, Gerry Murray polled the highest first preference vote but suffered from the lack of transfers. This might initially look like a typical Sinn Féin problem but, realistically, Murray isn’t going to expect a whole lot of support from the surpluses of Ring and Kenny and the elimination of Barrett, Enright and Chambers for reasons of geography as much as ideology.
Where he will look to scoop up votes is from other east Mayo candidates, John Carty and John O’Mahony. With a slight improvement on this poll Carty could well have a surplus to distribute while, at the time of his elimination in our poll, Murray is just behind O’Mahony.
O’Mahony receives a generous portion of Murray’s votes; were O’Mahony to be eliminated before him, you would have to imagine that Murray would similarly benefit and come right back into the reckoning.
Michelle Mulherin will be reasonably happy with her showing but will know that she has to attract more transfers. The fact that she only received four per cent and seven per cent, respectively, from the surpluses of Ring and Kenny will alarm party strategists and were it not for a surprise 30 per cent from the elimination of Peter Enright, she would have been eliminated much earlier.
Similarly to Gerry Murray, she will be hoping that she can stay in the race longer than John O’Mahony and benefit from his votes. O’Mahony just pushed her aside on the seventh count and then received 21 per cent of her vote. Mulherin would expect similar to happen if she outlasted the Ballaghaderreen man.
O’Mahony’s ability to attract transfers sees him move from tenth on the first count to seventh when he is finally eliminated on the eighth count. His inability to attract second and third preferences is not surprising. But only four per cent of first preferences will not get him into Dáil Éireann. If he can improve on this, he could well pull off a surprise yet.
For outgoing TDs John Carty, Beverley Flynn and Jerry Cowley this poll sees them returned again but with nothing to be getting complacent about. Carty does best of the three in first preference votes (eleven per cent) and does reasonably well in transfers from Chambers, Murray and O’Mahony (24 per cent, 17 per cent and 16 per cent respectively) but, come the day of the count, there is no guarantee that all three will be eliminated so Carty will be keen to target a higher first preference.
Both Beverley Flynn and Jerry Cowley perform superbly in picking up transfers to pull them away from the chasing pack. It’s their ability to attract transfers from across the board, in every count, that makes the difference. Both, especially Cowley, know they will need to improve their first preference to bolster their seats. Any slip spells potential trouble.
The destination of where the transfers will go will not be set in stone either. Remember that in 2002 Enda Kenny had his concession speech penned only for an incredible transfer from the votes of Frank Chambers pushed him past party colleague Jim Higgins and into the Dáil. We’d be facing into a drastically different election in Mayo this time around if Chambers’ transfers hadn’t saved the current Fine Gael leader.