Down to the wire again Analysis
Denise Horan WITH so many variables impacting on the outcome, few things can ever be said with certainty in advance of a general election. In a single five-seater constituency like Mayo, where things have traditionally been tight and battles have a habit of going down to the wire, even less can be taken for granted.
This week’s Mayo News/Millward Brown IMS opinion poll of the Mayo constituency bears out the veracity of this unpredictability, indicating that only two things seem indisputable in the Mayo race: Michael Ring and Enda Kenny will both be elected and Harry Barrett and Peter Enright will be eliminated. For the eight remaining candidates, that leaves three seats to be played for over the coming weeks.
Based on this poll, sitting TDs John Carty and Beverley Flynn look set to retain their seats, with Jerry Cowley edging out newcomer Dara Calleary for the final spot. As with all polls, however, these results cannot be taken as cast-iron certainties, rather as indicators of the way a sample of the Mayo electorate were inclining at a given time, in this case from April 10 to April 14.
John O’Mahony was the last candidate standing before the final count, while Frank Chambers, Gerry Murray and Michelle Mulherin were eliminated after the fifth, sixth and seventh counts, respectively. But, so marginal were the differences in some cases that all four appear to be in with a chance of challenging Cowley and Calleary on election day, and perhaps even Beverley and Carty.
Indeed, the fact that only the top two, Ring and Kenny, reached the quota in this poll, with the final three deemed elected after the ninth count, speaks volumes for the complexity of the Mayo constituency and the close-run nature of the outcome we can expect.
For the public it makes for a fascinating spectator contest. So clear the decks on election weekend (assuming it runs in to a weekend); this count will take more twists and turns and present more bumps and troughs than your average Mayo road.
Starting at the top, this poll shows Michael Ring perched so high, with 22 per cent of the first preference vote, that he is not only untouchable, but out of sight of everyone else. In reality, this simply won’t happen. His poll-topping crown is unlikely to be thieved – even by his party leader – but even the phenomenon that Ring is will not manage to get elected on the first count with a quota and a third to spare. Amid the widespread expectation of him being comfortably elected, one crucial thing is often overlooked – he was not the first elected in 2002, Jerry Cowley was, and neither reached the quota until the fifth count.
The safety of Kenny’s seat is also reflected in his first preference taking in this poll, with 19 per cent. Again, however, it is wise to round this down a few percentage points to get a truer picture of his standing. The possibility of him being Taoiseach has brightened his star considerably in the eyes of the public, and his elevation from seventh highest poller to second highest seems quite certain. Even if Kenny were to drop four percentage points, to 15, and his next closest opponent, John Carty (eleven per cent), were to add four to their respective takings from this poll, Kenny would still be be most likely to hold on to second spot.
From a Fine Gael point of view, this poll makes for uncomfortable reading. Notwithstanding the predicted landslides of their two stellar candidates, the fact that the party claims 51 per cent of the first preference vote in this poll and still fails to get a third candidate elected points to a sore need for strategic vote management. The view of Ring’s vote as ‘unmanageable’ is widely held, but is a little simplistic in this writer’s opinion. Surely there is a core Fine Gael vote there that can be better channelled for the good of the party, and doing it is a task that must be taken on firmly.
The battle for the final three seats will be between eight candidates, according to this poll, a view shared by most commentators. While sitting TDs John Carty and Beverley Flynn both did well on first preferences, eleven per cent and ten per cent respectively, neither reached the quota. Each had a strong starting point, but it was their consistency in drawing transfers that brought them over the line ahead of their competitors. Beverley was the greatest beneficiary in the transfer battle, taking more from Michael Ring’s surplus than any other candidate, getting the same number of transfers as John Carty following Frank Chambers’ elimination after the fifth count and also drawing more transfers than any of her opponents following the seventh count, which saw the distribution of Gerry Murray’s votes following his elimination. This points to a strong Fianna Fáil vote for Beverley, but also broad cross-party backing in terms of second preferences. Carty, meanwhile, benefitted most from the transfers of Chambers, Murray and fellow east Mayo man, John O’Mahony.
Then came the battle royal for the final seat. While Calleary led the way at the outset, with eight per cent of the first preference vote as opposed to seven per cent for the finally-elected Cowley, his downfall was his poor performance on transfers. He benefitted most from the elimination of his Ballina opponent Michelle Mulherin after the seventh count, but it was too little too late for the Fianna Fáil debutante. His failure to pick up any transfers from the surpluses of either Ring or Kenny or from the distribution of Harry Barrett’s votes (second, third and fourth counts), while Cowley picked up a significant number from each, led to him being overtaken by the Mulranny man on the third count. Cowley never ceded the advantage thereafter and, while he was still well short of the quota at the end, he was comfortably ahead of Calleary.
Michelle Mulherin, John O’Mahony, Gerry Murray and, to a lesser extent, Frank Chambers, were all in the hunt for the final seat early on, but with no Fianna Fáil surplus and no Fianna Fáil elimination early on, Chambers was quickly overtaken by O’Mahony, who benefitted more than any other candidate from the combined transfers of Ring and Kenny. The transfers dried up for O’Mahony from then until the seventh count, when he benefitted significantly from Gerry Murray’s elimination, while he also gained considerably from Mulherin’s elimination after that count, but it was not enough to trouble Calleary or Cowley.
Mulherin performed poorly on transfers throughout, with the notable exception of Peter Enright’s distribution, which benefitted her more than anyone else. Ultimately, her disappointing return from Ring and Kenny’s surpluses cost her a shot at the last seat, but her impressive first preference performance is likely to have pleased her as much as it will have surprised others.
While Gerry Murray polled well on first preferences – marginally ahead of Chambers and Mulherin, numbers wise – he was virtually overlooked at every turn in the second preference stakes, leading to his elimination after the sixth count. Securing transfers was always likely to be his biggest difficulty, but if Mulherin were to be eliminated before him – and little separated them in this poll – he could potentially benefit from a significant number of Ballina-based transfers, an area where he is known to be strong, thus leaving him in a position to challenge for the final seat.
For both Harry Barrett and Peter Enright, there are few positives to be taken from this poll, early elimination for each of them seemingly unavoidable.
For everyone else, however, there is plenty to think about and work on in the coming weeks. With only two seats apparently safe, every bit of groundwork, flesh-pressing and, most importantly for main party candidates, strategic management could make all the difference to that unpredictable final outcome.
Poll Facts The Mayo Constituency Poll was conducted by Millward Brown IMS. The sample was of 508 voters, interviewed face-to-face in their homes at 46 locations throughout the county. The quota is 86. The sample was quota controlled to be representative of sex, age and social class. Interviews were carried out between April 10 and April 14. Accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 4%.
