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We select five ‘certs’ and five value bets for your 2011 shortlist

Feature
Michael Duffy

THE CERTS

1 Arsenal to win Carling Cup

IT may not be the trophy most Gunners fans want to end their trophy drought. But silverware is silverware, and it is virtually impossible not to see Arsene Wenger’s men taking the Carling Cup at the end of February.
Their semi-final opponents Ipswich are in a horrid run of form, and once they get to the open confines of Wembley, it is hard to see either Birmingham or West Ham being able to cope with Aresenal’s open, expansive football.

2 Big Bucks to win World Hurdle at Cheltenham

I HAVE never backed this horse in my life, purely because he has nearly always been odds-on. But this year he looks like one to include in all sporting accumulators.
The Paul Nicholls-trained eight-year-old has now been put away until March 17, when he will be hoping to win his third World Hurdle in a row and his tenth straight race over hurdles. The only real danger he faces is Quevaga, but Willie Mullins’ mare is going for a three in a row of her own in the Mares’ Hurdle, so Big Bucks should have no problems on Paddy’s Day.

3 European to win a major in 2011

THE majors on the golf circuit in 2011 are sure to be among the most exciting sports events of the year, and all four will no doubt be keenly contested.
We all know Tiger will be back on the prowl, and there is plenty of other talent in the US and in South Africa. But it seems certain that one of Europe’s top players will capture one of the majors this year, particularly with Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy in such great form. The major action begins at Augusta on April 7.

4 Rafael Nadal to win the French Open

IT is quite remarkable to think that Rafael Nadal will not be 25 until next June. The Spanish star seems to have been around forever, probably because he won his first French Open title way back in 2005.
He has only failed to win the title once since then, in 2009, when he lost to Robin Soderling, but he regained revenge over the Swede in last year’s final. There is simply no one in the same league on clay as the left-hander. With his main rival Roger Federer reaching 30 this year, Rafa may well be eyeing a Grand Slam of titles in 2011. 

5 New Zealand to win the Rugby World Cup

THE Rugby World Cup begins on September 9 and it is about time that the great aristocrats of the game finally got their name back on the roll of honour.
No doubt there will be huge pressure on the All-Blacks playing at home, but they appear to have everything else going for them on this occasion. With players of the experience and calibre of Dan Carter, Conrad Smith, Keven Mealamu and Richie McCaw, they should get the job done. 4/5 may seem skimpy but it’s unlikely to get any bigger before the tournament starts.

THESE five certs will pay 6/1 in total if they all do the business.


THE VALUE BETS

1 Long Run to win the King George

DUE to the Arctic conditions over the Christmas, we now have the King George to look forward to next Saturday and Long Run could get 2011 off to a flyer.
All eyes will be on Kauto Star as he aims to win five in a row – but a young upstart, very much in his own mould, could spoil the party. Long Run may not be in the same league as Kauto. But Nicky Henderson’s charge has five years on his rival and Long Run destroyed a decent Feltham field in 2009 in his only career run at Kempton. At 11-2, he is each-way banker material.

2 Diamond Harry to win the Gold Cup

I WAS rewarded for my faith in Diamond Harry in the Hennessy in November when he hosed up. He has every chance of following up in the Gold Cup in March, because the top three in the market (Imperial Commander, Denman and Kauto Star) may have their best days behind them.
Nick Williams’s stable start seems to run well fresh, and at eight years old, he should be at the peak of his powers. I believe his poor run in last year’s RSA at Cheltenham was merely a blip, and he has won around Cheltenham. If he gets there fit and healthy, he has a cracking chance.

3 Gary Andersen to win the Premier League of Darts

DARTS are riding the crest of a wave following a thoroughly absorbing PDC World Championship and Phil Taylor coming in as runner-up in the BBC Sports Personality of the Year.
The Premier League of Darts sees the world’s best eight players pit their wits against each other on a league basis over 14 weeks. For the first time in a decade, Phil Taylor is vulnerable. World champion Adrian Lewis may relax for a while, so the man he beat in the final, Gary Anderson, is great value at 5-1 to win the Premier League outright this year.

4 Villarreal to win the Europa League

THE Europa League is highly competitive this year and should make for some interesting viewing.
Man City are favourites at 4/1 but they face a very tricky tie with Dynamo Kiev in the last 16 (if both make it through). So at the odds available, I would much rather be with Spanish side Villarreal, who look overpriced at 18/1. Third in the league, they have a fantastic home record. Crucially, they are due to pay Napoli away in the second leg in the round of 32 (and the same applies to Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16). If they get through those two games, they’ll be fancied.

5 Dublin to win the All-Ireland SFC title

THIS year’s fight for the All-Ireland football title looks very interesting indeed. Cork will be aiming to show that they can kick on, while Kerry will be keen to atone for last year’s no-show against Down.
However, Dublin could find top gear. They only played in fits and starts in 2010 but came very close to beating Cork. They are a huge, physical team and if they can find a player or two to give Bernard Brogan a hand up front, they have to be there or thereabouts. I think they can definitely make the final so an each-way bet is recommended.

IF you put a €10 accumulator bet on these five selections, and the first four came in, then you would be waiting on the Dubs to collect €674,310.