Geography to play a role in destination of final Mayo Dáil seats

With the three incumbent TDs expected to easily hold onto their seats, geography is expected to come into play when deciding who will take the final two seats in Mayo.

The final tallies in the Mayo constituency show that there is expected to be just 700 votes separating Ballina-based candidate Mark Duffy in fourth place and Independent Patsy O'Brien with Fine Gael's Keira Keogh and Lisa Chambers of Fianna Fáil squeezed in the middle.

While O'Brien is currently trailing in seventh place, many seasoned number crunchers suggest that the Robeen-based Independent is best placed to take one of the seats because of his location in the county.

With his neighbour, Fine Gael candidate Martina Jennings expected to be eliminated, many expect much of her vote which is expected to be around 3471 will be transferred to O'Brien, who is also a former Fine Gael councillor.

Another south Mayo candidate, Aontú's Paul Lawless is expected to poll close to 4,500 and when he is eliminated many expect O'Brien to get a good chunk of those transfers.

On the other hand, Mark Duffy will have an anxious wait to see what transfers he can pick up to keep him ahead of the posse.

A strong performance in his hometown is expected to give him close to 5,913 first preference votes but the question is where will his transfers come from. The only other candidate close to him is Dara Calleary and while the Fianna Fáil TD will get over the line, he might not reach the quota in doing so.

With no obvious transfers to rely on, it leaves the door open for his party colleague Keira Keogh and Fianna Fáíl's Lisa Chambers to overtake him.

Keogh is expected to benefit greatly from Chris Maxwell's 2,400 odd votes he is predicted to achieve as the majority of them are from west Mayo.

Both Duffy and Keogh will be eyeing Alan Dillon's surplus if the Castlebar candidate exceeds the quota but that surplus is also expected to be minimal.

Rose Conway-Walsh's surplus is expected to go to party colleague Gerry Murray so where will his transfers end up when he is eventually eliminated.

The big question is where will the sizable chunk of the 3,200 votes which Independent candidate Stephen Kerr is expected to receive end up.

Kerr picked up 7 percent of the vote in the Ballina Electoral Area so will Duffy benefit from those transfers or will Chambers pick up some of the 1,156 Kerr got in Castlebar.

With the final seats not expected to be filled until Sunday evening, all four candidates will be going to bed still dreaming of making it to Dáíl Éireann.