All to play for in crowded Mayo election race

Back at the end of July, the now former Mayo TD Michael Ring put the cat amongst the political pigeons when he announced his name would not be on the ballot paper for the General Election.

Straight away the political anoraks and analysts started crunching numbers and speculated as to where the 14,000 odd first preference votes he received in 2020 will end up this time around.

Trying to speculate where Michael Ring's votes will go would challenge the most seasoned political analyst given how popular the Westport man was amongst the Mayo electorate. His voting prowess stretched far beyond his Westport base and Fine Gael base with number ones coming in most ballot boxes around the county and from people who would never consider themselves to be blueshirts.

The big question everyone is asking this election is will Fine Gael hold onto the majority of those 14,796 votes or will the traditional Fianna Fáil voter who gave Ring their number one migrate back to the Republican party candidates or can Sinn Féin or the Independents grap a hold of some of them.

The 2020 General Election result in Mayo was remarkable in that despite Fine Gael having a nightmare of an election nationally, they still managed to poll 40 percent of the vote and it was the only constituency to elect two Fine Gael TDs.

On the other hand Sinn Féin also made a breakthrough with Rose Conway-Walsh riding on the wave of Sinn Féin's popularity in that election and getting elected on the first count with 14,633 first preferences votes – just 163 votes behind Ring.

Despite losing her seat, Lisa Chambers of Fianna Fáil was ahead of future Minister of State, Alan Dillon up until the seventh and final count, when he overtook her thanks to the distribution of his party colleagues, Michelle Mulherin's vote.

So what can we expect from this election? Who will be the front runners and dead certs and in the chasing pack, is there be a dark horse who can pip the fancied candidates at the line?

First time candidates

This election will see a number of first time candidates running with a lot of inexperience in the field when it comes to winning elections. Of the 16 candidates, only Dara Calleary can be seen as having the miles in the legs when it comes to contesting and winning General Elections.

Fine Gael are running a very inexperienced field and will be hoping that their election slogan 'New Energy' will hold sway with the electorate. Alan Dillon is the only sitting Fine Gael TD; Keira Keogh and Martina Jennings have never held political office, while Ballina-based councillor Mark Duffy only joined the party in September having been an Independent since he was first elected as a councillor in 2019.

Fianna Fáil are once again going with Dara Calleary and Lisa Chambers while Sinn Féin have gone bold with a two candidate strategy of their own with veteran Charlestown-based councillor Gerry Murray joining the race.

Former Fine Gael councillor and now Independent Patsy O'Brien is seen by many as a dark horse to get elected while another is Aontú's only councillor in Mayo, Paul Lawless.

With the absence of Ring in the field, there is no one candidate who is expected to dominate the voting so expect there will be a lot of bunching after the first count. Between now and polling day every candidate will be fighting tooth and nail for every vote to keep them ahead of their competitors after that first count.

There are a number of variables in this election which were absent from 2020 and the biggest change is the size of the constituency with the return of all of south Mayo from the clutches of Galway West, increasing the number of seats to five.

The extra seat is expected to give some of the sitting TDs some breathing space but will also give encouragement to the newbies who will be eyeing a crack at the vacant two seats.

If the recent TG4 opinion poll is to be believed then Alan Dillon is seen as a sure thing and will take the majority of Fine Gael votes which previously went to Enda Kenny and Michael Ring.

I'm sure Alan will be delighted with people saying he is 'a shoe in' to be elected and it looks like he is on solid ground for a return to the Dáil.

His fellow Minister of State, Dara Calleary also looks well placed to be returned for the fourth successive election having been first elected in 2007. However, like in 2020 he may have a long wait before he eventually gets over the line but he should have enough support to hold on.

His party colleague Lisa Chambers was the main casualty of the 2020 General Election and has been making a determined effort to win back her seat and maybe her political future. Her European campaign, where she narrowly missed out on a seat, will give her much encouragement and she has been actively promoting her campaign on social media. If she is to win her seat back she will have to win back the sizable vote available in Castlebar which she failed to win last time around.

The other question many people are asking is how will Sinn Féin do in this election after getting 23 percent of the vote in 2020. Having failed in the local elections to add to their solitary seat on Mayo County Council in the summer, many had expected Rose Conway Walsh to struggle this time around.

A year ago, Sinn Féin would have high hopes of taking two seats in Mayo but a drop in the polls over the last year looks to have put paid to that ambition. Adding Gerry Murray to the ticket will likely act as a sweeper to get Conway-Walsh elected but Murray is very popular in east Mayo and he may surprise many with the size of his vote. It is unlikely to be enough to get himself elected but it should comfortably re-elect his party colleague to the Dáil.

Intrigue

The inclusion of Martina Jennings to the Fine Gael ticket has added some intrigue and spice to the election race as she goes head to head with her Hollymount neighbour Patsy O'Brien in south Mayo.

The return of electoral areas around Kilmaine, Cong and Shrule back into Mayo gives hope to candidates in that part of the county that they have a chance of getting elected.

O'Brien is former Fine Gael councillor who has made no secret at his annoyance of not being selected as a party candidate for the 2020 election. He received 2,739 first preference votes in the local elections in June which was the highest in the county and with his farming contacts around the county he would have fancied his chances.

Has the inclusion of Jennings put the kibosh on O'Brien's chances of being elected or have Fine Gael a candidate who they see will take a seat? In her role as CEO of Mayo/Roscommon Hospice there is no doubt that Jennings has the public profile to mount a successful campaign but with Paul Lawless also targeting south Mayo there is a danger they may dilute the vote and none will be elected.

In the west of the county, Keira Keogh has put the disappointment of failing to win a council seat in June behind her and has launched a determined campaign to fill the sizable shoes of Michael Ring. It is no mean feat to try to follow a man who had an unenviable track record of contesting elections and was not afraid to get his hands dirty to do so.

Ring backing

Ring promised to put his energy behind Keogh and he has kept his side of the bargain, canvassing his former stronghold of Erris and sending letters calling on people to support Keogh.

Knowing that Keogh is not well known outside of Westport, her campaign team have focused on getting the maximum out of her home town with a very simple slogan, 'Keep your local TD'.

In north Mayo, Mark Duffy will be eyeing the former seat held by Michelle Mulherin who despite failing to get elected got 5,435 which was more than Alan Dillon on the first count. However her problem, which may also be Duffy's, was the absence of another north Mayo candidate who may transfer strongly on a geographical basis.

After each elimination in 2020, Dillon kept reducing the gap until he overtook Mulherin after getting a large chunk of Saoirse McHugh's transfers.

With the majority of candidates based in the south of the constituency, Duffy will hope he has enough of a lead of his rivals or he could feel the heat of the chasing pack.

With a field of 16 candidates, transfers from eliminated candidates is likely to play a significant role in this election.

Aontú's Paul Lawless is expected to pick up a sizable first preference vote but if he is eliminated, all eyes will be on where his number 2s end up. Jennings and O'Brien are likely to be the main recipients of these votes if they are still in the race while the transfers from Independent Ireland's Chris Maxwell are likely to benefit both Keira Keogh and Patsy O'Brien.

The result of the first count is likely to leave a very bunched field and very nervous candidates looking over their shoulder.

With so many new and unproven candidates, it will be fascinating to see who the people of Mayo place their trust in this time around.

Alan Dillon, Calleary and Rose Conway-Walsh should have enough but expect a stewards enquiry for the final two seats with Duffy, Keogh, Chambers and O'Brien all in the running.

Verdict:

Dillon (FG); Calleary (FF), Conway-Walsh (SF) Chambers (FF) and Keogh (FG).