Transfer uncertainty adds real intrigue to Mayo battle

Mayo’s voters go the polls on Friday in search of a General Election outcome more unpredictable than any before. With sixteen candidates in the field, this is a contest between competing parties and competing individuals, and one of competing strategies.

This time, it’s a bigger constituency, with an additional Dáil seat to give additional spice, bringing the number on offer to five. Fianna Fáil has chosen to go with two candidates in the hope of the double, a modest enough aim for a party which could once boast of a certain four out of six in Mayo.

Fine Gael has boldly – some would say rashly – entered four runners in the field, a strategy which could prove masterful if it works, and disastrous if it does not. And Sinn Féin, not nearly as sure-footed as it was twelve months ago, has opted for the fail safe plan of fielding two.

This is an election where, at first glance, the three outgoing TDs, Alan Dillon of Fine Gael, Dara Calleary of Fianna Fáil, and Rose Conway Walsh of Sinn Féin look well poised to retain their seats. All three have performed well over four years, and all have been elevated to more senior posts within their respective parties.

One might guess that Calleary should head the poll, if only because he has to share the Fianna Fáil loaf with only one other, Lisa Chambers. Dillon, who will also poll strongly, has to share the Fine Gael vote with three others, all formidable operators who have each been allocated specific areas which no colleague can cross, (an aspiration rarely attained in the world of real politics). Mark Duffy has already earned his spurs; Martina Jennings is proving to an effective campaigner; and Keira Keogh, with the blessing of Ireland’s biggest vote getter, will surprise many.

Sinn Féin conundrum

But it is the likely impact of Rose Conway-Walsh which could provide the answers to how this five-seater will be finally shaped. It is generally agreed that the tidal wave of close on 15,000 votes which swept her into the Dáil four years ago will not be repeated. But if her vote shrinks, then by how much? How much of that vote was a windfall gain, and how much was genuine, repeatable electoral support? And will her sharing of the ticket this time with Gerry Murray help or hinder her prospects of re-election?

Conway-Walsh can afford to suffer a long drop in support and still be in contention to retain her seat. Whether Gerry Murray’s addition will mean an additional injection of votes for Sinn Féin, or whether it means that votes intended for her will now be cast in favour of the Charlestown man, with no appreciable upside overall for the party, is one of the intriguing aspects of an intriguing election.

Fianna Fáil must surely view this election as being fraught with danger. For Lisa Chambers, it represents the last chance of her return to the Dáil and realising the potential even her sternest critics would credit her with. For her party, the prospect of returning with one Dáil seat out of five in a constituency where it once reigned supreme, would be unthinkable. Unthinkable, yes ; impossible, no. And if that were to happen, the party might as well fold its tent and disappear into the night.

By comparison, these are happy days for Fine Gael. A virtually certain two seats and, on a good day, the hat-trick of three. Mark Duffy has a nose in front, but the two lady riders will fancy their chances and, with the election due to be decided on transfers, the chips can fall in any direction.

Large quota

With sixteen candidates and a probable quota of 11,500 it is unlikely that anyone will be elected on the first count. The eight contenders outside the main parties include some impressive names who will be in the fight to the finish. The most interesting battle on the undercard is that between Patsy O’Brien, the Independent, and Martina Jennings of Fine Gael, and whoever emerges from that local arm wrestle might well be on the road to success. The rising tide for Independent Ireland will benefit Chris Maxwell of Louisburgh, following his local election success, while Paul Lawless of Aontú will be the dark horse of the campaign. Stephen Kerr may find that the white heat of immigration has cooled somewhat, so that he will need to broaden his policy appeal if he is to profit from the 'dissident' vote, with Gerry Loftus expected to gain support from the farming vote. The greens Michael O Conaill may find it hard to emulate the success of former Green, Saoirse McHugh.

And then there are the transfers, which will be crucial to the filling of the last seats. Where they will go is anybody’s guess, and the quirkiness of Mayo voting patters does not make the task any easier. Few will forget the election of twenty years ago when the votes of the eliminated Frank Chambers of Fianna Fáil transferred in such number to Enda Kenny of Fine Gael as to rescue him from certain defeat, on the last count, against all the odds. And four years ago, Alan Dillon became a TD when, still trailing his colleague Michelle Mulherin, after the fifth count, Saoirse McHugh of the Greens transferred enough to him to lift him above Mulherin, and take the seat.