Bookmakers anticipate Mayo constituency result to go to the wire

EVER since Michael Ring announced he was retiring back in August, it has been anticipated that the Mayo constituency would be one of the most fiercely contested in the 2024 General Election.

There have been no opinion polls conducted to date to give an indication of who is going well on the ground but this afternoon bookmaker Paddy Power released their odds for the constituency, and as anticipated, it is extremely tight at the top of the market.

In my own constituency profile earlier this week, I indicated that the three sitting TDs running in the election were likely to be at the shortest prices and Powers believe Alan Dillon (1/10), Rose Conway-Walsh (1-5) and Dara Calleary (1-4) are virtual certainties to be returned to Dáil Eireann when the votes are counted on November 30.

After that, things get interesting. In their first evaluation of the market, Powers put Cllr Mark Duffy next (8-15) and Independent Patsy O'Brien on (4-6), but the closeness of the race for the final two seats is emphasised by the fact that two other candidates are also odds on with Lisa Chambers (8-11) and Martina Jennings (5-6). The bookmakers are also not ruling out Keira Keogh at odds of 5-2, but after that the prices get bigger, which Gerry Murray the only other candidate at single figure odds (11-2).

The prices on offer for the rest of the candidates are as follows: Stephen Kerr (12-1), Paul Lawless (16-1), Chris Maxwell (33-1), Michael O Conaill (40-1), Joe Daly (200-1). No prices were quoted for two Independent candidates, Gerry Loftus and Sean Forkin.

The country's other main bookmakers, Boyle Sports, have also just put up their first market on the Mayo constituency, and it is generally along the same lines as the Powers market, with a few small but notable changes.

They make Alan Dillon an even bigger cert to take at a seat at odds of 1-20. They have the same eight candidates in the race for a seat but they put Fianna Fáil's Lisa Chambers in the top five instead of Patsy O'Brien.

Boyles full list of prices are as follows: Alan Dillon (1-20), Rose Conway-Walsh (1-5), Dara Calleary (1-4), Lisa Chambers (8-15), Mark Duffy (8-15), Patsy O'Brien (4-6), Martina Jennings (5-6), Keira Keogh (11-4), Gerry Murray (13-2), Paul Lawless (10-1), Stephen Kerr (12-1), Chris Maxwell (22-1), Micheal O'Conaill (40-1) and Joe Daly (200-1) with again no prices available for Independents Loftus and Forkin.

16 candidates remain in the field in the Mayo, and the closing date for receipt of further nominations is this Saturday, November 16 at 12 noon. Candidates can withdraw their names from the race up until Monday, November 18 at 12 noon.