IT’S hard to put much stock in loyalty when the cold, hard facts are staring you in the face. But no matter how you look at it, Mayo are just where they planned to be. 

It might not have been how they wanted to get there, or the state in which they looked to land, but they are there. All roads have converged for the Connacht Final in MacHale Park. 

It’s no secret that Kevin McStay and his management team have been eyeing this game a long time back and, to borrow that god awful phrase, ‘trying to peak’ for it. 

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Whether that narrative was just smoke and mirrors for two unconvincing performances against Sligo and Leitrim we don’t know yet. 

But the word around the camp is that their training load has been heavy through the opening rounds. Not tapering off like it would for more competitive games. 

This columnist has been racking his brain trying to construct a rational argument for how Mayo overcome Galway this weekend - every angle, every match-up, every tactical possibility.

But if I’m being brutally honest, only my loyalty can justify Mayo beating Galway. On facts and figures, it just doesn’t add up no matter how you look at it.

PICTURES: Mayo GAA supporters out in Leitrim for Connacht semi-final

THE FORM GUIDE

MAYO’S performances against Sligo and Leitrim hardly set the world alight. Yes, there’s mitigation for a flat showing against Sligo — a week after a League Final will take its toll —but labouring against Leitrim for a large part wasn’t the response we expected.

Even with Mayo’s training load coming into the game, this was a massively inexperienced Leitrim side that was decimated with departures from their panel. A team who didn’t win a single league game in Division 3 and finished with a big 158 in conceded scores. 

With all due respect, if Mayo trained the night before they should be beating them. Contrast that with Galway. They laboured for long periods against New York, but produced a big response against a decent Roscommon side. 

Even without Shane Walsh togging and Damien Comer only fit for a late subs appearance. Would Mayo beat Roscommon without Ryan O’Donoghue and Aidan O’Shea? I have my doubts.

My sources in Galway tell me that they are really trying to manage Comer this year to avoid his body breaking down. Whilst Walsh remains key, but question marks also surround his fitness for the Connacht Final. 

Padraig Joyce says he’s a serious doubt, but he would say that, wouldn’t he? We’ve struggled to tie down that aforementioned duo in the past. It’s likely that David McBrien will be tasked with handling Comer once again. 

And he’ll be keen to make amends for last year’s tussle. Who picks Walsh up is the big question? Callinan struggled in the league and he is not a natural man marker.

The only player Mayo have who can match Walsh for pace is Eoghan McLaughlin. The Westport man should be handed a very defined role – mark Walsh like a rash and pull him the wrong direction at every opportunity. 

TWO-POINT TROUBLE

ONE of the most glaring advantages Galway hold is their arsenal of potential two-point scorers. Love it or hate it —and personally I think it’s an overpowered rule that should be scrapped —the two-point shot has completely changed the game’s dynamics. 

Galway are really well equipped in that department. Mayo, on the other hand, haven’t hit a single two-pointer in two championship games. 

If Shane Walsh is injury-free and the conditions are favourable, he alone could hit three or four.Conor Flaherty, Matthew Tierney and Paul Conroy have all hit them for Galway so far, and you could throw in two or three more who have it in the locker. 

Mayo’s options in this department are significantly more limited. Ryan O’Donoghue can do it, but who else can be relied upon to consistently convert from that range?

THE ENGINE ROOM

I LOOK at Galway’s physicality around the middle and I think Mayo will struggle. John Maher has transformed into one of the country’s top midfielders. A colossal presence who did well against Roscommon despite carrying a knock. 

Paul Conroy continues to defy age and logic, improving year after year, while Tierney and Cein Darcy are a formidable duo too. 
Barry McHugh of Leitrim caused Mayo all sorts of trouble and while they have footballers around the middle, in today’s game physicality is more important right now to collect that primary possession. 

Like it or not, the kickout and two-pointers are what define results right now. Teams are naturally going to become more and more obsessed with these metrics and it’s going to rub off on matches. For better or for worse. 

THE BIG PERFORMANCE

THE big question remains: Have Mayo burned the dirty diesel? Will this Sunday be the day when they produce that one performance we all live and hope for?

Talking to most Mayo supporters over the past few weeks, it’s what people are pinning their hopes on. And of course, it’s absolutely within them. 

While I struggle to make a logical argument for Mayo, and to paraphrase a well-known Mayo player, history has showed that logic doesn’t always come into play.

It’s something Mayo love to defy and this fixture has a habit of producing the unexpected. Winning four Connacht titles in a row is not easy, either. 

Form books have been tossed out windows and the law of averages are against Galway too. The heart says Mayo can pull off something special. The head, looking at the evidence, is struggling to see how.

But then again, isn’t that when Mayo are at their most dangerous? When nobody gives them a chance? It’s an ideal position to be in. Ambush territory. 

Sunday will tell us if they’ve been keeping their powder dry or if what we’ve seen so far is simply what we’ve got.

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