OPINION: Politics, power and peaceful transitions

Irish general elections have become rather dull affairs. It was very different in 1932, the first election in the Irish Free State, when the anti-Treaty Fianna Fáil party won more seats (72) in the Dáil than the ruling pro-Treaty Cumann na nGaedheal party (57).
There was fear in the country that this test of post-Civil War transition of power might not happen. The fact that it passed off peacefully was due to adherence to principles of democracy by the outgoing CnaG government and by all other institutions of the State.
There was to be no ‘January 6’ storming of government buildings in Ireland or spurious claims of a ‘stolen’ election because there was no Trump to fan the flames. Tommy Mullins, a FF TD in 1932, paid generous tribute to CnaG leader WT Cosgrave for his defence of Irish democracy.
I can think of only two cases when the electoral outcome was determined mainly by a single issue. June 16, 1977, was the second-last time that any single party won a majority of seats in the Dáil (84 for FF, 64 for the rest) – an outcome that was effectively ‘bought’ by FF promises of big tax cuts (mainly domestic rates) and massive increases in public expenditure. The inevitable consequences of a mountain of public debt and interest payments eventually devastated the Irish economy when the second oil-price shock and global recession hit in the early 1980s. After the fall of the short-lived administration of Charles Haughey in June 1979, the Irish electorate lost faith in majority, single-party governance, and we have been governed ever since by coalitions of different parties, just like the rest of the EU.
The second memorable election was February 25, 2011, and it produced a ‘kick them out’ result. These years saw the most serious global recession since 1929 and an Irish banking system that was horribly exposed because of excessive and unsupervised lending to property developers. The devastation caused to the Irish economy by reckless and indolent actions of coalitions of FF, Progressive Democrats and the Green Party since 2002 decimated the ranks of the FF party, reducing it from 78 to 20, and wiped out their PD and GP partners.

Coalition challenge
Media rumours are that we are to have a general election in November, but the main challenges on the horizon appear to be remedial rather than existential. Let me explain.
Everyone agrees that we have a serious housing crisis, but no party has any credible plan to solve it in the short to medium term. Many of our public services (health, education, climate change, provision for migrants and asylum seekers, etc) are fraying at the edges. However, the underlying difficulties involve dysfunctional governance structures and poor-quality public oversight and management, rather than any ideological political reluctance to allocate funding from coffers that are reasonably flush right now.
Our situation is very different from that of the UK, where the choice in their last election was between an incompetent, social services-trashing Tory party leaning dangerously to the ideological far right and a reformist, social-democratic Labour Party that shares many of the characteristics of Irish political parties. This was a UK ‘kick them out’ election.
The challenge facing the Irish voters in November is rather different: to identify a coalition that is likely to muddle through a bit better than the current lot.
‘May you live in interesting times’ is claimed to be a Chinese curse. ‘Interesting’ times are usually times of trouble. But while we Irish live in ‘uninteresting’ times, the same cannot be said for America.

Trumpian times
The challenges facing the American electorate on November 5 keep reminding me of the last democratic election in the Weimar Republic on July 31, 1932, after which Hitler came to power as Chancellor in January 1933. In the first months of Nazi rule, all the democratic checks and balances were attacked and destroyed and Germany lurched into dictatorship. Anyone who watches Fox News will observe a propaganda operation that is as slick as that operated by Dr Goebbels’ Ministry of Propaganda, the principle being that if you lie big and often enough, people will eventually believe you.
A great benefit of social media is that one can follow the debates of the Democrats and Republicans as they go on the stump, rather than relying on short TV sound bites from organisations that often have agendas. One can compare the rambling whine of Trump with the compelling reasonableness of Harris. One can compare the behaviour of Republican VP candidate JD Vance with his Democratic rival, Tim Walz, as both purchased some comfort food in stores during their travels. Vance was tense, stilted and standoffish, while Walz was relaxed, friendly and chatty.
Walz reminded me of a younger Michael Ring drumming up support in Murrisk many years ago. He grasped my father’s hand and said: “Ah, John, I know you will not give me your number 1, but would you consider giving me your number 2?” My father was dyed-in-the-wool FF, but how did Michael Ring know that? Impressive!
Here’s hoping that the Harris/Walz ticket will win in November and that the Democrats will inadvertently rescue the Republican Party from its extraordinary descent into Trumpian autocracy. Here’s hoping that, no matter what happens, there will be a peaceful transition of power, as in Ireland 92 years ago.

John Bradley is a former ESRI professor and has published on the island economy of Ireland, EU development policy, industrial strategy and economic modelling.