‘Yes he will’ says Kenny poll Áine Ryan IF FINE GAEL leader,Enda Kenny needs affirmation of the Obamaesque impact of his ‘Yes we will’ speech at last weekend’s Ard Fheis, all he needed to do was check the poll on politics.ie.
Over two-thirds (71%) of participants had responded yesterday in the affirmative to the simple question: “Enda Kenny, can he?” And that’s despite the national media – if not quite baying for his blood – accelerating a campaign that continually questions his potential Taoiseach pedigree.
Surely it’s a vacuous exercise comparing Kenny’s rhetorical abilities with the clear master, Labour leader Eamonn Gilmore. It’s now decades since the Galway man honed his skills in the draughty halls of student union and trade union politics.
And, why even bother comparing him to Brian Cowen’s dour civil service-speak.
So what, if Enda Kenny, like his namesake, Pat Kenny, can appear a tad wooden.
So what if the opening lines of his speech were more stylistic opportunism than optimistic sincerity:
“I want to speak to you about my optimism for our people, about my confidence in the advantages we have and about my belief that with courage, fairness and decisiveness, we can point the way ahead to a new future, a fairer Ireland and a truly just society.”
The country may crave the optimistic style of Deputy Kenny’s speech but it urgently and desperately needs delivery of its substantive promises.
In his speech, Enda Kenny promised that his party will create 100,000 new jobs by the end of 2013; make this country net exporters of renewable energy by 2015; transform our education system so that two-thirds of our children attend third-level by 2013, and also restore Ireland to the top five most competitive countries in the world within three years.
And according to his constituency colleague, Deputy Michael Ring, Fine Gael has the talent for delivery, with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.
“Brian O’Driscoll couldn’t have won the Grand Slam playing rugby on his own. Well, Enda Kenny has built a great team around him and we have the most united front bench I’ve seen in years,” Michael Ring told The Mayo News last night.
Deputy Ring stressed that Fine Gael has addressed all the key issues needed for economic recovery and that further to the announcement, at the weekend, that it would introduce a universal health insurance system, there will be more key health policy announcements in the coming weeks.
O’Reilly and Mooney complete Euro ticket
Michael Duffy
THE line up for the Ireland West constituency in the upcoming European election looks to have been completed with both Fine Gael and Fianna FΡil announcing their second candidates over the weekend.
The rumour mill had capitulated many names in the ring in the last number of weeks and at one stage it appeared as if both Jim Higgins and Sean Ó Neachtain could run on solo tickets for the two major political parties in the constituency.
However, Fine Gael Leader, Enda Kenny TD, confirmed on Friday that Cavan/Monaghan Senator Joe O’Reilly would be joining Mr Higgins on the ticket.
“Joe O’Reilly is an excellent candidate for Fine Gael in the Ireland West constituency for the upcoming European Elections. Joe secured almost 10,000 votes in the Cavan/Monaghan constituency in the 2007 General Election and was very unfortunate not to take a seat. In fact the total votes polled by Joe were the highest number secured by any unsuccessful Fine Gael candidate in the last election.”
Senator O’Reilly said it was a great honour to be asked to represent Fine Gael in the European Elections.
“These elections come at a critical time for the country as we consider our ongoing relationship with Europe. It is vitally important that we retain our position of influence
within an enlarged European Union. A vote for Fine Gael is one simple and
effective way of achieving that ambition. We are part of the EPP (European People’s Party) grouping within the European Parliament which is the largest and most powerful block in the Parliament.”
At the Fianna FΡil convention in Castlebar on Sunday, former Senator Paschal Mooney was chosen as the running mate of Sean Ó Neachtain.
Speaking at the convention, Sean Ó Neachtain stressed the importance of the European Union in the Irish economic recovery process.
“It is clearly in Ireland’s economic interest to stay at the heart of the European Union project. Now more than ever, we need the European Union. Moving away from Europe and detaching ourselves from the European Union project simply sends out the wrong message to international investors.”
Paschal Mooney said he was honoured to be selected as a candidate. “I am proud of my roots as a Leitrim man and I look forward to working with the Fianna FΡil organisation in the North and West to contest this election,” he said.
Time to cut foreign trips - Gannon
WESTPORT Town Council candidate Ollie Gannon (pictured)has this week called for a complete review of all council expenditure on conference and overseas trips to identify cost savings.
“All identified savings should be passed on to the small businesses and shops in the town in the form of a reduction in rate charges,” said Mr Gannon, who added it was vital that the town council be as supportive as possible of these businesses, with the view to maintaining as many jobs as possible in these challenging times.
“If elected, I formally propose at council level, that all councillors will not attend conferences or avail of foreign travel for the duration of the new council term. The savings made should again be passed on to the many businesses in the town that are giving local employment. Cost savings and the elimination of unnecessary expenditure by the council has to be a priority at this time. While councillors attending various conferences can be useful, the level of expenditure incurred for these events cannot be justified in the current environment. Alternatives to attending conferences might include direct presentations on various topics of importance to the town, directly to councillors, by town planners and environmental experts at a venue in Westport,” added Cllr Gannon.
Casualties likely in Claremorris thriller The Field Michael Commins THE new Claremorris six seat constituency looks set to be one of the most intensely contested electoral areas in Mayo. As of now, there are ten candidates in the field comprising of seven outgoing councillors, two ex-councillors and one who served on the Fianna Fail national executive. It just cannot be more competitive than that in any of the other five areas in Mayo.
The decision to merge the Claremorris 4-seater and Ballinrobe 3-seater to form a new 6 seat constituency means that at least one outgoing councillor has to lose a seat on this occasion. But there could well be other casualties along the way. Some areas from the “old” Ballinrobe region have been transferred to Castlebar on this occasion while Aghamore and around half of Tooreen area has been shaved off at the other end and transferred to the Swinford region.
This is going to be a hot campaign with internal rivalries already floating to the top within Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. For the party candidates, maintaining “borders” is going to prove difficult and there is certain to be plenty of “incursions” by almost all of them between now and polling day.
Heading into the campaign, the sitting seven comprises of three Fianna Fail, three Fine Gael and one independent.
Fianna Fail are fielding outgoing councillors Michael Carty, Pat McHugh and Damien Ryan while Gerard McHale from Claremorris, easily the youngest candidate in the race for Aras an Chondae, makes his political debut.
Damien Ryan appears to be in the most comfortable position on the Fianna Fail team. He has a big area to himself in the southern end of the constituency with his nearest Fianna Fail candidate over fifteen miles away.
The danger for the party is that the other three are located very close to each other and, in a local election, there is going to be huge slippage in transfers. Indeed, it can be expected that less than 50% of votes will transfer to other runners on the same party ticket.
The loss of Aghamore and some of the Tooreen region impacts mainly on Michael Carty (and John Cribbin of Fine Gael). Carty will also have an extra fight on his hands in the Barnacarroll area which is home turf for the McHale family roots. McHale will also impact in a big way on Pat McHugh’s vote in the Claremorris town boxes.
With Pat McHugh in Ballindine, Gerard McHale a few miles in the road just outside Claremorris, and Michael Carty a few miles away in Knock, the three way split of the vote could leave all three trailing the rest of the field on first preferences. Adding further to this scenario is the strong likelihood that Fianna Fail is facing one of its toughest ever elections in the history of the party.
Fine Gael expressed hopes of winning four seats at their convention in Claremorris some time ago. It was achieved in Ballina last time out but is unlikely to manifest itself in Claremorris where three seats looks the most likely outcome.
The general expectation is that John Cribbin, who recorded a massive vote in the Ballyhaunis boxes five years ago, is well on course to be returned to Mayo County Council with similar expectations for Patsy O’Brien from Robeen who also made a major impact on his first outgoing in 2004. Since then, he has consolidated his base and will benefit from the merger with Claremorris even though he is losing a fair few votes with the transfer of three polling booths to the Castlebar area.
Tom Connolly, on his second outing, polled very impressively in Claremorris town, Crossboyne and Ballindine last time out and will be confident of retaining his seat. He will face an extra challenge on this occasion with the arrival on the scene of his neighbour Gerard McHale of Fianna Fail and also a resurgent challenge from Richard Finn (Ind).
Michael Burke, who lost out in 2004, must get above his rival Harry Walsh (Ind) of Kilmaine if he is to take a seat. Walsh was around 120 votes ahead of Burke on the first count the last time but will have to edge in front on first preferences to stay in the race.
A lot of the focus will be on the performances of the two independents with Harry Walsh from Kilmaine defending the seat that he won in style last time. In 2004, Padraig Flannery, who resides near Kilmaine, was on the Fine Gael ticket. This time, Harry appears to have a clearer run but will need to poll as well as he did in Ballinrobe town before to maintain that push in a tight finish.
The defeat of outgoing independent councillor Richard Finn in 2004 was one of the big surprises of that election. He was among the favourites to retain his seat but polled poorly enough in the Claremorris town boxes. This time, reports suggest that the Finn campaign is far better focussed and motivated and up for the challenge to regain the seat. He is also well placed to benefit from disenchanted Fianna Fail voters who are most likely to register their protests by voting for strong independent candidates.
In an election campaign where independents are expected to do well all over Mayo and around the country, anything can happen in the Claremorris six seater. With just over eight weeks to go, it is still too early to gauge trends on the ground. But one thing is for certain, nothing will be won soft in the Claremorris constituency on this occasion. All the candidates will know they have been in the ring.
Candidates entering uncharted territory THE ISSUE
Michael Duffy DUE to the population changes that have taken place in Mayo over the last decade of prosperity, there was always likely to be changes to the electoral areas of the county when Minister John Gormley announced he had established two committees to review local electoral areas at the beginning of 2008.
However, the seven elected councillors from the Ballinrobe and Claremorris area could never have envisaged that it would change so drastically their attempts to be re-elected to Aras an Chondae.
The one single biggest issue facing the candidates for the 2009 campaign is they are now basically starting from scratch, results in previous campaigns mean nothing and it’s all to play for in what is effectively a new electoral area, which stretches all the way from Knock to Cong, some 30 miles.
The rise in population in Castlebar meant a seat had to be taken from another area and in the end the amalgamation of the Claremorris and Ballinrobe areas was the choice taken by the committee.
With all sitting councillors running again, the situation is that seven won’t go into six so there will definitely be one casualty when the results are announced on June 6.
Although it is strictly not a scientific approach, amalgamating the results of the two electoral areas from 2004 makes for interesting reading.
The electorate for the area is now likely to be well over 22,000 with the population of the towns of Ballinrobe and Claremorris increasing by over 20 per cent in the last census in 2006.
This will mean that if there is a turnout similar to 2004 (73 per cent in Ballinrobe, 65 per cent in Claremorris), then the quota to be reached in the new electoral area with six seats, will be over 2000 votes, a stiff task for even the likes of Ballyhaunis man John Cribbin, who topped the poll in Claremorris last time out with 1,693 votes.
So the likelihood here in the new Claremorris Electoral Area is that probably at least half the seats will go to candidates who won’t even reach the quota and that is where vote management, and the use of transfers, is likely to decide who rules the roost at the end of the day.
And this is where the unity and strength of purpose for the major parties will come into play. There is a tendency in local elections for people to vote geographically rather than toe the party line, people feel that it’s better to have a candidate living in their immediate area, no matter what party they belong to. So the real challenge for the candidates, in particular for previous poll toppers Cribbin and Damien Ryan, is to make sure their transfers stay within the party fold. It sounds easy in theory but the reality is, with two strong independent candidates, Harry Walsh and Richard Finn, also in the field, transfers are almost impossible to predict and those who get their heads in front on the first count may well stay in front in a fascinating race. It’s a contest in which there are few racing certainties.
Results 2004 (Amalgamation of Ballinrobe and Claremorris Electoral Area)
Electorate - 21,557
Total Poll - 14,830
Spoiled Votes - 229
Valid Poll - 14,631
Turnout - 68.79%
Quota (7 seats) - 1,829
Quota (6 seats) - 2091
Elected Michael Carty FF
Tom Connolly FG
John Cribbin FG
Pat McHugh FF
Patsy O’Brien FG
Damien Ryan FF
Harry Walsh IND
