Early Ireland weather models suggest bitterly cold December similar to 2010 snow

An Irish weather forecaster has hinted that conditions could be aligning for a bitterly cold December similar to that experienced in 2010 when Ireland endured a long cold spell with heavy snow.

Cathal Nolan from Ireland's Weather Channel made the comments based on early weather models but stressed that it's too far out to make accurate forecasts.

"A re-run of December 2010, anyone?" he hinted in a social media post as he explained the data behind the early prediction.

"Before we get into the nitty gritty of the detail, the following is an analysis based on the latest seasonal outlook from the ECMWF weather model, which despite being one of the most powerful forecasting tools at our disposal has been proven wrong before, especially when forecasting on the timescale of months, rather than days ahead," he explained.

"Despite that warning, one cannot help but be captivated by the the below graph which shows us the pressure trends for the month of December vs the long term climatological average for this period. In other words, how great a difference the projected pressure pattern will be rather than what we would typically expect to see at this time of the year.

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"What we see is clearly a synoptic pattern which frequently provides Ireland with colder than average conditions, and occurring in the month of December, typically leads to wintry precipitation (snow), at least in some parts. This blocking pattern, with a high centred close to Iceland causes the jet stream to push well to the south of Ireland and opens up cold easterlies.

"Similar conditions occurred most noteably during the month of December 2010, when Ireland was subjected to a run of cold easterly winds which resulted in substantial falls of snow across the eastern half of the country, and led to the coldest temperatures of the 21st century to date. Such a pattern would enhance the prospects of cold conditions if it transpires.

"A weaker than expected and weakening Polar Vortex, as indicated by the slackening winds at the 10hPa level, combined with an Easterly QBO phase, coming out of the solar maximum, and with the onset of a weak La Niña, can conspire to increase the risk of colder than average conditions during periods of the upcoming winter, perhaps the first half of the winter," Cathal said.

However, Cathal added: "Now, to reiterate, we’re not saying that we will experience a frigid December with snowfall for everyone, we’re merely highlighting one model's theory, which if it were to transpire, could provide us with a more appreciable cold spell than what we have become accustomed to of late. It must be said that other models do support the ECMWF also."