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05 Sept 2025
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05 Sept 2025
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Pictured are the results of the TG4 Ipsos B&A poll of the Mayo constituency ahead of the General Election on November 29.
The results of a TG4/Ipsos B&A Mayo constituency poll revealed on Nuacht TG4 this evening show current TD and Fine Gael junior minister Alan Dillon out in front on 17 percent, reaching the quota and guaranteeing him a seat. He takes outgoing Michael Ring’s place as Fine Gael biggest vote getter in Mayo.
Following a review of constituencies by the Electoral Commission last year, the constituency boundary has been revised to include all of Mayo, returning to a five-seater with a quota of 17 percent.
In 2020 Fine Gael took two of the four seats – Michael Ring topped the poll and Alan Dillon edged Michelle Mulherin out for the second Fine Gael seat. The remaining two seats went to Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh and Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary.
A second seat for Fine Gael is very likely again this time round, with Mark Duffy on 10 percent, Keira Keogh on 8 percent, while Martina Jennings is back in the field on 4 percent. The combined Fine Gael vote in this poll lines up with the party’s vote share in 2020 when they won two seats in what was then a four-seat constituency. However, questions remain about the party’s strategy of running four candidates.
Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh is well positioned to hold her seat with 13 percent of the vote. Sinn Féin’s total vote in Mayo is 18 percent (when you add in Gerry Murray’s 5 percent), which is in line with their national polling figures, but below the 23 per cent the party achieved in 2020.
Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary is on 11 percent with running mate Lisa Chambers on 10 percent. Combined, the Fianna Fáil vote is above a quota and they will be challenging for a second seat.
Independent candidate, Patsy O’Brien is in contention for the final seat, on 7 percent. Also on 7 percent, Aontú’s Paul Lawless has performed above the party’s national showing at 7 percent, and could also be in contention for the final seat.
This TG4/Ipsos B&A poll was conducted over the phone on Monday and Tuesday of this week (November 18 and 19).
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