Kelly can inspire Deise to beat final spread

Kelly can inspire Deise to beat the final spread


Punting
Michael Duffy

IF this Kilkenny team are one of the greatest of all time, then the 2-7 about them winning Sunday’s All-Ireland hurling final could be the greatest GAA bet of all time.
But sport is rarely that simple and there’s enough of the x-factor about this Waterford team to stop us taking daft prices like that.
Kilkenny are the more likely winners, no question. They have no discernible weak links, the best defence and midfield, and they know that a victory on Sunday will secure for them a place in the pantheon of hurling teams. They also have a clinical edge to them, a killer instinct, the remove of real champions, and are certain not to be affected by the hype surrounding next weekend’s big match. But 2-7?
So what of Waterford, can they finish the most dramatic of summers with an extraordinary victory? Well the 100-30 about them doing that is a little on the big side but is not attractive enough to plough into – instead let’s take a look at the handicap betting.
Bookmakers reckon Kilkenny will beat Davy Fitz’s side by five points, but you get the impression that it’s a real stab in the dark. And the armour that Waterford have in their ranks – arguably the country’s most potent forward division – makes them prime candidates to beat the spread.
No matter what happens on Sunday, Eoin Kelly will be shortlisted for a player of the year award, that’s a given.
And his red-hot streak might not be over yet. Kelly is 5-2 to score a goal at any time in Sunday’s match and if there is any man alive who can puncture the Kilkenny defence it is he. It may be worth taking a punt on Kelly to score the first goal of the game at 9-1 too.
Bookmakers are betting on up to 50 markets ahead of the weekend’s match and amid that jungle one of the more interesting bets lie in the first score of the game market. Waterford will be up for this – Davy will make sure of that! – and they could be scorching in the opening exchanges. Kilkenny will be anxious in that period to quell any Waterford momentum so an early free is a distinct possibility and 7-2 that happening is attractive.
Whatever your view on Kilkenny’s chances in the senior match, for us their minors have looked irresistible this summer. Their performance in victory over Tipperary in the semi-final makes the 4-7 on offer an attractive bet.
Recommendations: Waterford +5 (11-10), Eoin Kelly to score first goal (9-1), Eoin Kelly to score a goal at any time (11-4), Waterford point from a placed ball to be first score (7-2). Kilkenny minors 4-7 (v Galway, Sunday).

Weather should suit New Approach
THE Champion Stakes on Saturday at Leopardstown threatens to be one of the races of the season, the rematch between five-time Group 1 winner Duke of Marmalade and Derby winner New Approach. Last week we suggested taking the 100-30 about Jim Bolger’s colt and it looks, touch wood, that the weather will come in our favour. All of the Duke’s wins have been achieved on fast going whereas New Approach will appreciate a bit of dig. Bolger is confident that New Approach will settle better at the weekend and he is sure not to be as fresh as he was last time out. It promises to be a classic!
Already recommended: New Approach 100-30 (Irish Champion Stakes, Leopardstown, Saturday).