Poll indicates current TDs will return to Dáil

FACES IN THE CROWD An Taoiseach Enda Kenny took time out from the General Election campaign to attend the AIB GAA Football Senior Club Championship Semi-Final on Saturday evening where Castlebar Mitchels beat Crossmaglen Rangers in Kingspan Breffni Park, Cavan. He is pictured in the crowd alongside Mayo footballer Cillian O’Connor and former Derry footballer and TV pundit Joe Brolly. Pic: Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile

Conway-Walsh and Chambers say fourth seat still within their grasp

Anton McNulty

The impressive Fine Gael election machine looks set to return all three candidates to the next DΡil, with Dara Calleary also predicted to be elected according to the latest opinion poll.
The Irish Independent/Millward Brown opinion poll illustrates that all of the current sitting TDs in Mayo will be elected, with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny set to get the edge on running mate Michael Ring and top the poll.
The opinion poll, which was conducted between February 9 and 11 and involved 502 respondents, indicates that the three Fine Gael candidates will secure 56 percent of the vote, with Kenny on 24 percent, Ring on 23 percent and Michelle Mulherin on 9 percent.
Fianna FΡil TD Dara Calleary is on 19 percent in the poll, followed by Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway Walsh on 11 percent and Lisa Chambers on 8 percent. Former TD Jerry Cowley is the best of the rest on 3 percent while Renua’s Michael Farrington and People Before Profit’s Tom Moran are both on 1 percent.
With the quota on 20 percent, it is predicted that Kenny and Ring’s surplus will take Mulherin over the line in the battle for the fourth and final seat.

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The latest poll has hardened the odds on Michelle Mulherin to retain her seat, which she first won in 2011. However, the Ballina-based TD is not taking things for granted.
“I never take voters for granted. But I think three out of four is highly doable, and we’re working for that,” she said.
Sinn Féin candidate Rose Conway-Walsh said she was not disheartened by the poll claiming it showed they are ‘within striking distance of taking a seat’.
“It shows every vote will count, and for the people who have experienced the failures of this Fine Gael government, it shows that I am only person who can prevent Fine Gael from taking three seats in the county.
“I feel it will encourage people, such as the working poor and farm families, to come out and vote. It is up to the people of Mayo if they want to continue with the failures of Government and Fine Gael’s false promises,” she said.
Fianna FΡil candidate Lisa Chambers said that the last seat was still to play for and that she was surprised the polling company only polled 502 people.
“The poll showed us what we already knew, the first three seats are going to Kenny, Ring and Calleary and the third is all to play for and it will come down to transfers. I was surprised they only polled 500 people in such a large constituency. The larger the poll the more accurate it is, while this one has a margin of error of 4.4 percent. You would want a crystal ball to see how it will turn out,” she said.
The poll also showed that Conway-Walsh only picked up 5 percent of transfers, compared to 17 percent for Mulherin and 14 percent for Chambers. The Sinn Féin councillor felt this did not reflect the sentiment she was getting on the ground, while Cllr Chambers said that recent polls often understate the strength of Fianna FΡil.