Destination of two seats in Swinford on a knife-edge

SWINFORD ELECTORAL AREA

Seats: 4

Candidates (9): John Caulfield (FF); Neil Cruise (FG); Adrian Forkan (FF); Seán Forkin (Ind); Marion Gordon (The Irish People); Tommy Horan (Aontú); Gerry Murray (SF); Antoinette Peyton (FG); John Sheahan (SF).

THE Swinford Electoral Area was reinstated to its rightful status in 2019 after having been shared between Ballina, Claremorris and Castlebar in 2014. Nine candidates go to post on this occasion in what is an extremely hard constituency to predict the outcome with any certainty.

The main towns in the region are Swinford, Kiltimagh, Charlestown and Foxford and the region also takes in Kilkelly, Kilmovee, Tooreen, Aghamore, Killasser, Bohola and Carracastle.

While no seat is ever assured, it is fair to say that it would be nothing short of an absolute shock if Gerry Murray of Sinn Féin and Neil Cruise of Fine Gael were to lose out on June 7. Gerry Murray topped the poll in 2019 with around 1,900 votes while Neil Cruise came third with around 1,500. Swinford town candidate, Michael Smyth (Fianna Fail), finished second 1,677 but stepped away from politics last year.

Gerry Murray from Charlestown is the only outgoing member of Mayo County Council from Sinn Fein heading into this election. The party lost two of its three sets in 2019. Gerry has established a reputation as an extremely accomplished and hard-working councillor who has earned the trust of so many across party lines.

Neil Cruise has served two terms on Mayo County Council. The Ballyhaunis native has resided in Foxford for several years. In a strange realignment of the electoral areas prior to the last Council election, he became a major beneficiary of the transfer of Tooreen, Aghamore and some villages like Coolnafarna, Leow, Kiltybo and Scrigg on the Ballinlough side of Ballyhaunis into the Swinford Electoral Area.

When the votes came in from the Tooreen, Aghamore and outlying areas of Ballyhaunis in 2019, Neil Cruise was not forgotten by his ‘home’ area where he picked up in the region of 200 votes.

The other outgoing candidate in this region is John Caulfield of Fianna Fail who polled 1,296 on the first count. He has now served ten years on the Council and has built up many contacts throughout the region during that time.

Living in Kilkelly but a native of Kilmovee, he looks to be in a relatively strong position but will face tough competition from his running mate, Adrian Forkan from the Kiltimagh region and Tommy Horan of Aontú from Kilmovee who polled 642 first preference votes on his first outing five years ago.

Adrian Forkan, well known in Kiltimagh and Mayo Over 40s GAA circles, was co-opted to the vacancy caused by the decision of Michael Smyth to resign his seat and not seek re-election. Adrian is assured of strong Kiltimagh support from across the political divide and also among the many members of the GAA fraternity.

So much will hinge on the spread of votes in Swinford town and neighbouring areas. John Sheahan, who came so close to taking a seat for Sinn Féin when the town was in the Ballina Electoral Area in 2014, is hoping to give the party a very special day if he can take a seat along with Gerry Murray.

Antoinette Peyton from the Killasser region is a first time candidate for Fine Gael and has been mounting a good campaign across the region. The previous Fine Gael councillors from the general Swinford area over the last three decades were Joe Mellett and Sean McEvoy with John Martin Flannery taking a seat on the Charlestown and Carracastle side of the constituency.

Marion Gordon, a member of a well known Bohola family, is a first time candidate with The Irish People Party while Seán Forkin from Cloontia, who got 62 votes last time out, is also on the ballot paper.

The main questions here are: can Adrian Forkan secure a big ‘launching pad’ vote in Kiltimagh (like Eugene Lavin of Fine Gael did before) and also take a decent vote from the Swinford and Foxford boxes, can John Sheahan or Antoinette Peyton get major support in Swinford to keep them in contention or can Tommy Horan add an extra 400 votes to his tally back in 2019 to see him in the shake-up?

Two of the seats here are on a knife-edge. On the basis that it is hard to see Swinford town without a councillor, I give a hesitant nod to John Sheahan to shade it. Adrian Forkan still has all to play for to retain the seat for Fianna Fail or even challenge party colleague John Caulfield in a close finish.

Verdict: Neil Cruise (FG), Gerry Murray (SF), John Caulfield (FF), John Sheahan (SF).