COUNTY VIEW: A tricky trip to Washington

Micheál Martin goes to the White House this week for the shamrock ceremony which for long has been the envy of far bigger players on the world stage. But this time, it might be different, and the Taoiseach will need every ounce of his tact and diplomacy to emerge unscathed from what is turning into a bearpit for visiting heads of state. The shameful ambush on President Zelenskyy has given Mr Trump and his henchmen a taste for blood. And the new found American animosity towards Europe means that the Taoiseach will need his strongest suit of armour before entering the lion’s den.
The American pivot to align itself with the gang of rogue states has taken the world by surprise. Within weeks of his new presidency, Mr Trump has sold out Ukraine, rehabilitated Russia, and signalled his refusal to come to Europe’s aid when – not if – the next confrontation arrives. His pandering to Russia meant that Europe was excluded from the White House /Kremlin talks on the proposed carve-up of Ukraine, a gesture which, late in the day, alarmed Europe into accepting the need for it to become self sufficient in its own defence. That the US chose to vote in step with Russia, Belarus and north Korea in the UN resolution on Ukraine was a clear indication that America would prefer to follow the path of brutal dictators who brook no dissent, and that Mr Trump would happily follow the same playbook.
The dismissive treatment of Mr Zelenskyy at the White House may be partially explained by Trump still smarting over the Ukrainian leader’s refusal to investigate the activities of the son of the former President, Hunter Biden. Insofar as that goes, the Taoiseach may have a better chance of surviving this week’s encounter with his dignity intact. But much depends on the mood of the moment, and the thin skinned occupant of the Oval office is likely to take offence at any perceived slight. His mood towards Europe will hardly have been sweetened by the warm, friendly sympathetic reception extended to Zelenskyy in London after his bruising encounter in Washington. Whether he plays the part of friend or foe to his Irish visitor will be down to his fickle and erratic nature, with the warning caveat that, as the entire world knows, here is a man who relishes every chance of putting people down.
Disturbingly, too, there are a couple of big sticks which, if Trump chooses, he will use to beat us with. The trading imbalance which irks him so much has particular resonance for Ireland, where Trump’s big complaint is that US companies manufacture drugs here, and declare their profits here, at beneficial rates, even though the research and development for these products has been done in America. And for a man who hates nothing more than being “ suckered ” in business, the idea of Ireland taking Uncle Sam for a ride is an indignity too degrading to swallow.
It has been suggested that the Taoiseach may seek to appease the White House irritation by offering a deal, something always close to Trump’s transactional nature. An offer to impel big pharma to declare more of its profits, and thus pay more taxes, in the US, while at the same time pressing them to reduce their export prices, might stave off something more damaging. (Mr Martin will not be unmindful of the recent Apple announcement to repatriate 20,000 jobs and $500 billion investment back to the home country over the next four years). And he could also usefully remind his hosts that all of the traffic is not one-way. Ryanair has placed a $ 22 billion order with Boeing for 210 new aircraft, to be manufactured in America, with a further 300 to come within ten years.
The other big stick which the Taoiseach’s host may choose to brandish, should the mood take him, is that of the status of the thousands of undocumented Irish now living good lifestyles in the US. And while it might seem unlikely that the net of deportation will be cast over our law abiding, exemplary emigrants, the mere hint of uncertainty would be enough to cause deep unrest. In an administration as unpredictable as that in Washington is proving to be, nothing is off the table, and Mr Trump is surrounded with acolytes who seem quite ready to bring the house down in the pursuit of the disruption which is a core part of official policy.
Micheál Martin has a reputation for a safe pair of hands; it’s an attribute he will require in abundance in the next few days. The stakes have never been higher for a leader from a Europe which is so out of favour with the ruling administration in America, and all for no better reason than a personal animosity and a deep grievance over perceived unjustness.
The shamrock is said to bring good luck to the Irish; the next few days will put that belief to the test.