EDITORIAL: Huge battle awaits for last seats in Mayo

WE have had a very short run-in to General Election 2024 but there have been plenty of twists and turns since Taoiseach Simon Harris dissolved the Dáil on Friday, November 8.

The results from a lot of constituencies across the country look fairly predictable, but that cannot be said here in Mayo. We are in for a fascinating battle once the boxes are opened from 9am on Saturday at the Count Centre, which once again will be located in the TF Royal Theatre in Castlebar.

The bookmakers’ odds and the results of the TG4 Ipsos B&A poll of the constituency show that only two of the candidates are relatively safe.

Fine Gael Junior Minister Alan Dillon is now at the top of the betting markets and it is generally expected that he will top the poll. Still, he is unlikely to be elected on the first count.

Sinn Féin TD Rose Conway-Walsh looks to be clear in second place, and she should comfortably hold on to her seat. However, she may have to wait until the likely elimination of her running mate, Cllr Gerry Murray.

Momentum does seem to have swung towards Fianna Fáil in recent days, with both Dara Calleary and Lisa Chambers now occupying the third and fourth positions in the betting markets put up by the two biggest bookmakers, Paddy Power and Boyle Sports. However, both candidates will struggle to get transfers, and they will have to be patient to get over the line.

Both bookmakers now have Fine Gael’s Cllr Mark Duffy in fifth position and favourite to take the final seat – but there has been a significant move in recent days for Westport-based first-time Fine Gael candidate Keira Keogh.

Concerted campaign

Keogh was as big as 3/1 to take a seat a little over a week ago, but both betting companies now have her clear in sixth position at odds of 11/8. There has been a concerted campaign in Westport and west Mayo in recent days to hammer home the Fine Gael message that the area needs to vote to keep a TD in order to build on the decades of work put in by retiring TD Michael Ring.

The veteran TD has most certainly given his full backing to the Keogh campaign, as has long-time Erris-based Fine Gael councillor, Gerry Coyle, and Keogh now has the wind in her sails as voting day approaches.

However, the volatile nature of the Mayo constituency can be judged by the fact that the bookmakers are now discounting the chances of other candidates in the field.

The aforementioned TG4 poll struck a blow to the campaign of the other first-time Fine Gael candidate in the field, Martina Jennings, but her battle in south Mayo with the now-Independent councillor, Patsy O’Brien, will still be one of the most interesting aspects of voting in the Mayo constituency.

O’Brien has drifted in the betting markets, probably due to the controversy surrounding the reasons for his expulsion from Fine Gael, but he is still firmly in the race for a seat.

The TG4 poll has given real impetus to the campaign of Aontú councillor, Paul Lawless, who is now as short as 11/2 with the bookmakers. He may fall just short of getting into the race for the final seat, but his transfers and those of Independent Ireland’s Chris Maxwell and Independent Stephen Kerr, are going to prove pivotal in deciding who remains in the race for those final seats.

In such a tight race, every vote could prove crucial, so Mayo voters are encouraged to get out in large numbers on Friday next and play their role in deciding which five Mayo candidates are elected to the 34th Dáil.