EDITORIAL: All to play for in Midlands–North-West election battle

WITH the local and European elections less than six weeks away, the final fields are now taking shape. And the battle for seats is promising to be a very interesting one.
The public are usually slow to engage with the European elections, but most of the candidates have now held their launches, and the sprawling five-seat Midlands–North-West constituency has attracted a large field of 20 candidates.
A fourth Mayo-based candidate has now thrown her hat in the ring. The news that former Green Party member and Achill native Saoirse McHugh is going to run as an Independent has certainly brought an added dimension to proceedings. Also running are fellow Mayo women Lisa Chambers of Fianna Fáil, sitting Fine Gael MEP Maria Walsh and Independent Michelle Smith, who is based in The Neale.
Speaking to the Sunday Independent last weekend, McHugh said one of her chief concerns is the increasing presence of the far right in the Irish political landscape.
“The rise of the far right is the biggest change in politics in the last five years,” she said.
“We have people setting fire to buildings to stop people living in them. And there are a lot of people out there who are giving a lot of cover to this and I think it’s really dangerous.
“But one thing I have learned since first entering politics is that social media is not reality. If you get out and knock on doors, the vast majority of people are sound; they want to get on with their neighbours and community.”
McHugh performed very well in the 2019 European election, when she ran for the Green Party in what was then a four-seater constituency. She received over 50,000 votes and ended up sixth in the race overall. However, she still faces a very difficult task in trying to secure a seat in what is a huge constituency.

BOOKIES’ VIEW
BOYLE SPORTS is the only betting company currently with odds for the European elections, and they make Saoirse McHugh a 10/1 outsider at present.
Sitting MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan is a hot favourite to retain his seat and the bookmakers feel that the three main parties will take the next three seats, with a battle royal likely for the fifth and final seat.
Nina Carberry (Fine Gael), Chris McManus (Sinn Féin) and Barry Cowan (Fianna Fáil) are the candidates who look most likely to be elected for their respective parties, and Boyle Sports don’t feel Mayo natives Walsh or Chambers are likely to be in the race for that final seat.
The bookmakers make Sinn Féin’s second candidate, Michelle Gildernew, Aontu’s Peader Tobin and Independent Ciaran Mullooly as the most likely candidates to battle it out for the final seat. They give John Waters, who is running as an Independent, a good chance too.
Boyle Sports reckon Mayo women Walsh (7/2) and Chambers (5/1) have a very big challenge ahead of them to get into the race for the final seat. However, both enjoy a high profile nationally and cannot be fully ruled out of gaining a second seat for their parties.
There have been big surprises in the past in European elections too, most notably when Dana Rosemary Scallon took a seat in the then Connacht-Ulster constituency back in 1999. And certainly, at least half of the field of 20 still believe they have a real chance of securing a seat in the European Parliament.
It’s all to play for over the next six weeks or so.