Five things to watch after first count

Edwin McGreal
Castlebar

1. Where will Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s surplus go?

If the Fine Gael tally is accurate, then Taoiseach Enda Kenny will have a surplus of 533 votes. Currently his Fine Gael running mate Michelle Mulherin is 317 votes behind Fianna FΡil’s Lisa Chambers in the race for the last seat.
With the feeling being that Chambers may be more transfer friendly generally, Mulherin will have to get a good chunk of Kenny’s surplus to bring her closer to Chambers.
However with Fianna FΡil in Castlebar reported to have been asking Kenny voters in the town to keep their number two in the town - ie give it to Chambers - it remains to be seen if Kenny’s votes will hugely favour Mulherin.
Certainly Fianna FΡil are bullish that Chambers will unseat Mulherin.
Of course some of Kenny’s surplus will also go to his other running mate, Michael Ring, which will bring him closer to the quota. However with Ring over 1,400 votes off the projected quota, he is likely going to have to wait for a few counts before he takes the second seat.

2. Who will benefit from the elimination of the smaller candidates?

The nine lowest placed candidates have a combined vote of 3,670 and where those votes go is hard to discern.
Many of them would be considered to be left of centre while Michael Farrington of Renua could be described as right of centre.
Farrington has the largest number of votes of these nine candidates, with 1,576 according to the Fine Gael tally.
He would be considered to be a Fine Gael gene pool candidate, both in terms of family background and Renua’s politics.
However his location in Kiltimagh makes it hard to determine which of the main candidates will benefit from his eventual elimination. Fine Gael will hope a good chunk of them make their way to Michelle Mulherin but saying that with any certainty is a risky bet.
The next best placed candidates are Margaret Sheehan (Green Party) and Tom Moran (People Before Profit) on 619 and 547 respectively, according to tally figures.
You would have to think higher placed candidates like Jerry Cowley (Ind) and Rose Conway-Walsh would be best placed to benefit from their elimination.
The rest of the smaller candidates could scatter in all directions due to geography and differences in philosophy.
However geography helps Chambers more than Mulherin with only one of the bottom nine candidates, Peter Jordan, from Mulherin’s north Mayo base and he only has 179 votes to distribute.

3. How crucial is Jerry Cowley’s votes in deciding the outcome?

Five years ago Jerry Cowley was eliminated on the seventh count and the distribution of his 5,899 accumulated votes saw a sizeable 1,141 go to Michelle Mulherin and push her over the quota. What Fine Gael would do for a similar boost this time around.
However there is a sense in the count that Cowley’s votes could go in all directions and that the two candidates best placed to benefit are Chambers and Rose Conway-Walsh.
If Mulherin was able to get a good portion of Cowley’s vote, it could breathe new life into her chances but it appears unlikely.

4. Who will finish in sixth position?

Whoever finishes in sixth will be the last candidate eliminated with the fifth placed candidate simply being not elected.
Therefore the last transfer of a candidates votes will be those of whoever finishes in sixth. Right now that looks like being Rose Conway-Walsh unless she can bridge a gap of 1,510 votes to Michelle Mulherin.
If it is Conway-Walsh who falls at this hurdle, who will benefit most? If he has not reached the quota by then, Michael Ring may do well, even though Fine Gael and Sinn Féin would not have much in common.
Ring is very popular in Erris, where Conway-Walsh is based and polled well. Many of those votes could go back to the Minister for State.
That could be enough to get Ring past the quota and the big question then is will Chambers or Mulherin do better from the Sinn Féin vote.
Fianna FΡil are confident it will go in their favour. Five years ago Calleary got more votes from Conway-Walsh than Mulherin did so history is not in Fine Gael’s favour.
Chambers will be hoping to pick up a lot of Conway-Walsh’s vote in parts of West Mayo that she canvassed while Calleary may also get a lot of the 1,574 votes Sinn Féin took in Ballina.
 

5. Where will Dara Calleary get his transfers from?

The general feeling ahead of the election was Dara Calleary would, at worst, take the third seat. Right now we don’t think that’s set in stone. He is too far ahead of Mulherin to be under threat of losing his seat but his running mate Lisa Chambers could actually leapfrog Calleary to take the third seat.
Think about it - Chambers is much more geographically well positioned to benefit from transfers than Calleary. Calleary has enough of a first preference vote to insulate him from the problems Mulherin has in getting enough transfers but his location problem is the same as Mulherin - neither is transfer friendly due to their Ballina location. As stated above Conway-Walsh could be his best chance of votes to stay in third but we don’t think he will mind if it means Fianna FΡil pull off what was unexpected in most quarters and take two out of the four seats.
Of course in any election there’s always the potential for drama in the counts ahead but right now it is hard to bet against a two/two outcome.

Stayed tuned to www.mayonews.ie for further updates from the various counts this evening.