Schmidt’s been blessed with an easy run-in

George Hook

THE 2015 Rugby World Cup is almost upon us and Irish eyes are wincing in expectation at the possibility of what is to come. With a summer of training camps and warm-up test matches behind us, it seems like this tournament has been an age in the making.
And, with a chance to make history by reaching the semi-finals for the first time ever, excitement around a World Cup campaign has never been higher. Can Joe Schmidt go where no other Irish coach has gone before? Or will Ireland follow their predecessors and fall short of a top four finish on the world stage?
One doesn’t have to go too far back to remember the last time an Ireland rugby team flattered to deceive at a World Cup. In 2007, the ‘Golden Generation’ of superstars fell flat on their faces by failing to emerge from the pool stages in France.
The circumstances and personnel in this campaign are vastly different from eight years ago and Ireland’s recent track record would suggest a potential for a greater showing, but I can’t help but be apprehensive about Ireland’s chances over the next six weeks.
Certainly, it is true to say that Ireland are in a strong position. As back-to-back Six Nations champions, with almost a fully fit squad to choose from and a relatively easy group run, the stars would appear to have aligned in Ireland’s favour.
But in order to give a realistic assessment of Ireland’s overall position, one has to factor in the performances and form during each of the last four warm-up tests. Unfortunately, the analysis does not make for pretty reading.

Recent games
The opening test win against Wales last month lulled us all into a false sense of security. Certainly, there was much to admire about the five-try victory at the Millennium Stadium, particularly given it was Ireland’s first outing since March.
But a closer inspection of the opposition in Cardiff that day told us everything we needed to know about the true measure of the achievement. It was far from a first choice Wales XV. In fact, it was probably closer to Warren Gatland’s third string selection. And though Ireland were comfortable winners, the result had a major asterisk beside it.
Ireland’s subsequent showing against Scotland was less than impressive. A laboured performance with multiple errors highlighted worrying problems in attack and defence and though the result went the way of the home side, there wasn’t much to admire about the overall performance.
Subsequent back-to-back defeats against Wales and England only further compounded the deficiencies in the Ireland game plan, so that we now find ourselves just a few days out from the opening match and with little room left to manoeuvre.
Joe Schmidt has been blessed with an easy run-in to the pool stage. The opening two games against Canada and Romania will allow the squad to slowly build performances ahead of crunch matches against Italy and France. Ireland, unlike England in their pool of death with Wales and Australia, do not have to hit the ground running.
But when the tougher games come thick and fast and Ireland face France in what is likely to be a pool decider, I wonder how the team will cope.

Showing our hand
For me, Ireland have become extremely predictable and laboured with ball in hand. Opposition teams - as England and Wales showed - are all too aware of where the Irish threat will come from. Schmidt seems to have instilled a policy of maintaining possession at any cost and Ireland do not off-load the ball as a result.
If opposition teams are not expecting Ireland to off-load the ball, it makes them far too easy to defend against. Instead of committing three of four players to guard against outside runners receiving a pop pass, opposition teams can afford to put just one or two players in to make a tackle, safe in the knowledge that the player in possession will go to ground and not pass it off.
The rest of the opposition defence simply fans out across the pitch and waits for the next crash runner to strike. If Ireland make a mistake, the move is up.
This type of limited attack plan cannot work in the long long term and it will not be enough to break down the top ranked teams in the tournament. Also, because Ireland are not blessed with raw pace in their armoury, they are over reliant on creating mismatches and overlaps to create space.
Much of Ireland’s attack and pressure system depends on the accuracy of Jonny Sexton and Conor Murray. If either players has an off-day with the boot, Ireland cannot exert maximum return from their kick-chase strategy.

Strategy
England were fully prepared for Sexton’s aerial bombs at Twickenham recently and they dealt with them accordingly. At the moment, if the kicking game is off, there doesn’t seem to be a plan B.
I keep hearing that Schmidt is saving his best tactics for the World Cup and that Ireland will unleash a new master plan when the crunch games come along. But is it realistic to expect a team to implement a brand new strategy in a World Cup, without first trying it out against international opposition?
If Ireland get everything their way under the current Schimdt game plan, it’s quite possible they will account for France in the pool stage and buy themselves an easier quarter final against Argentina next month. But the potential for error under the coaches limited attacking philosophy is too great for any of us to be overly confident.
Rather, it is far more likely that France will top our pool and Ireland will face into the quarter finals against the best team in the world. And not even the most optimistic Paddy would back us to come out on top against the All Blacks.
 We won’t have long now to find out which way it goes. Over to you, Joe.