Punting
Michael Duffy
LAST week’s column was put to bed in advance of last Monday’s Irish Grand National but I hope readers managed to cotton on to big priced winner Hear the Echo.
I fancied Michael O’Leary’s strapping seven-year-old to run a big race after he was put away when he ran an unlucky seventh in the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas.
His jumping was exemplary last week and he certainly looks like a horse who will try his hand at the Aintree fences over the next couple of seasons. A strong fancy also for Royal County Star meant I only had a small each way bet — but it’s not often you get a chance to shout home a 40/1 winner, especially when the only one that can catch him is the only other horse you backed in the race!
There will be plenty on at fancy prices again this weekend as a maximum field of 40 is likely to go to post for the John Smith’s Aintree Grand National. The race has been slow to gather momentum and publicity this year but it looks a cracking renewal, with the handicap looking extremely even all round when one considers the official ratings.
Two favourites have won in the last ten runnings but one stat from the last decade that keeps jumping out at me is the fact that only one, the obviously classy Hedgehunter (remember he was placed in a Gold Cup), carried more than 11 stone to victory.
Some of the Irish challengers (Chelsea Harbour, King’s John Castle) seem to me to need the going soft to win and with the ground likely to dry out considerably, one horse looks to fit the bill for me.
Comply or Die was good enough to finish second in the Royal and Sun Alliance and fourth in the Hennessy back in 2005 before injury threatened a promising career.
However, his last two runs have been full of promise, he carries a lovely racing weight, and at nine years old he’s the ideal age for a National winning horse. Timmy Murphy is the perfect jockey to keep him out of trouble early on too. With David Pipe’s yard in great form, he ticks all the right boxes. 10/1 is the general price available.
Of course, it’s impossible to ignore some of the bigger prices. I have already recommended Kelami as an ante-post prospect but one who can run a big race for the Irish — and Tuam jockey Tom Ryan — is Tom Taaffe’s Tumbling Dice. Always well thought of, he has been working with the well-fancied Slim Pickings and has apparently taken to jumping the Aintree style fences. He’s 100/1 with Ladbrokes (and only 50s with Powers, Boyles and Cashmans) which is a cracking each way price so get on today if possible.
The Grand National Festival gets underway on Thursday and if there’s one rule to abide by for all three days it’s this: throw away the formbook you’ve operated from since January. However, there are some fascinating races in store so check out the selection box for my best bets of the week.
AWAY from racing, the US Masters kicks off on Thursday week and in next week’s edition we’ll have a comprehensive look at the betting side of golf’s greatest tournament.
For now we’ll content ourselves with a nibble ante-post. Steve Stricker’s consistency sees him ranked fourth in the world and quotes of 66/1 are too big for next week’s event at Augusta.
And finally, despite there being eight teams left in this year’s All-Ireland Under-21 football championship, the county that haven’t won the title for a decade are the warm favourites. With Cork out of the way, only Tipperary stand between Kerry and a Munster under-21 football championship. But even still, 7/4 looks skimpy and Derry at 6s are much better value to continue Ulster’s fine recent record in the competition.
SELECTIONS
Aintree
Thursday
2.00 - Blazing Bailey
2.35 - Kauto Star
3.10 - Celestial Halo (nap)
Friday
2.00 - Starzaan
3.10 - Monet’s Garden
3.45 - Well Tutored (nap)
Saturday
2.15 - Perce Rock (nap)
2.50 - My Way De Solzen
4.15 - Comply or Die (Tumbling Dice e/w)
5.35 - Have you Seen Me
