Analysis
Edwin McGreal
edwinmcgreal@mayonews.ie
MATTERS might be far from clear-cut in the five team Section D of the Mayo senior championship as teams from that group prepare for round three next weekend, but in the other groups teams should know where they stand by now.
With only one round remaining in Sections A, B and C the requirements facing each team is clearly mapped out.
One team (Crossmolina) is secure of their place, another (Ballagh’) would require a fall of catastrophic proportions to deny them such a spot while only one of the seventeen senior teams (Moy Davitts) can definitely rule out a quarter-final spot.
This year will be the first year in the county championships that scoring difference (and not play-offs as was used in the past) will be used to separate sides that are locked together at the end of the group stage. It changes everything.
The term ‘not mathematically safe’ is often used to to describe a team who is as good as over the winning line, without having passed the magic number.
Ballaghaderreen are ‘not mathematically safe’ in Section A. Who knows; Garrymore could beat them in Ballagh’ by 14 points to overtake last year’s county finalists. Claremorris could, mathematically, overtake Ballagh’ as well. Things could also go pear-shaped in Shrule and they might lose to Claremorris by 31 points and that would be enough to bring Ballagh’ down to third place.
What odds? We might just rule it out.
In years gone by all that would have been required was any level of victory by Garrymore, a Claremorris win and we would have a three way play-off. But not this year so Ballagh’ are through in essence.
The fun will really begin in terms of who will finish runners-up behind Ballagh’ in Section A. At the minute it’s Garrymore, thanks in no small part to a healthy scoring difference. Shrule-Glencorrib and Claremorris will quickly point out that Johnny Monaghan’s team have yet to meet the high-flying Ballagh’ and that that should bring Garry’ back a bit.
Perhaps, but remember in last year’s championship Ballagh’ only beat the South Mayo lads by two points. A similar result would really give them a shouting chance but, like plenty of other teams, Garrymore will rely on results elsewhere.
Claremorris face Shrule in a vital last group game for the third year running. Victory for Declan Ronaldson’s team will see them overtake their opponents but they will need a swing of eighteen points to catch Garrymore, presuming Ballagh’ win as expected. Claremorris managing to draw or win would put them in pole position for progression.
Charlestown top Section B at present after winning their first two games and will know that avoiding defeat against Louisburgh will be good enough. But Frank Noone’s team will need to realistically win that game to progress so Charlestown aren’t quite secure. A Louisburgh win combined with Ballina beating Westport would leave Charlestown, Louisburgh and Ballina locked on four points.
Scoring difference between the three is currently minor enough so such an outcome could be enthralling yet. Westport aren’t out of the reckoning either. Should they beat Ballina and Charlestown beat Louisburgh, there would be three teams on two points and the scoring margin there is minor enough also. Hang on tight.
Section C is the most clear-cut. Crossmolina are already through. Moy Davitts cannot make the quarter-finals so it will be either Burrishoole or Ballinrobe who advance. Burrishoole currently have the upper hand, two points in front of Ballinrobe and fifteen points separating them in scoring difference.
Ballinrobe will have to hope they can comfortably defeat Moy Davitts and that Crossmolina, already through, do the same to Burrishoole. Moy Davitts still have something to play for. The bottom team in each section will go into the relegation play-offs. Should Moy Davitts beat Ballinrobe, they would avoid that fate.
If Section C is the most straightforward, then Section D is a complete minefield. Tourmakeady aren’t technically out of the running but will do well to recover from two initial defeats. However, with Breaffy, Knockmore, Castlebar and Kiltane all locked on two points, each team will realistically fancy their chances. Scoring difference could be very important here but with three rounds yet to be played, an awful lot can change.
