Michael Duffy
THE novice races at the Cheltenham Festival can often be the most exciting as horses full of potential look to deliver on the biggest stage in national hunt racing.
However, this year’s big races look a little short on quality, and the markets suggest we could have very strong favourites come March 15.
The opener, the Supreme Novices Hurdle, has been won by some classy sorts over the last decade. But more than a few bubbles have been burst too, with the Irish winning seven of the last ten renewals.
This year’s race seems to lack any real strength in depth, and Cue Card has been favourite since he bolted up in last year’s Champion Bumper. The only blot on his copybook was the defeat against his elders when Menorah showed his Champion Hurdle potential in the Stan James International Hurdle. Cue Card is undoubtedly a worthy favourite, but at the prices I would be more inclined to back Willie Mullins’s Zaidpour.
The trainer has made no secret of the fact that he rates this five-year-old as one of the best novices he has trained, and his reverse behind First Lieutenant at Leopardstown can be forgiven due to very heavy ground. 8/1 looks a great each-way price at the moment, as he should prefer this ahead of the longer Neptune Novices Hurdle.
The Arkle doesn’t look as laden with class horses as other years either, with the top two in the market looking the part. The Irish challengers are likely to be Realt Dubh and Noble Prince, but they will have to go some way to challenge the likes of Ghizao and Finian’s Rainbow. My preference is for the latter, who is likely to be much shorter on the day than his current 4-1 if the field cuts up. He has only won two three-runner races, but he has always looked a chaser and two miles looks to be his best distance.
The Royal and Sun Alliance Chase is all about one horse at present, with Time for Rupert as short as 5-2 in most places. There is no doubt he sets the standard and he clearly loves Cheltenham. At this moment, ahead of Sunday’s PJ Moriarty Novice Chase, it is impossible to decipher who is the main Irish challenger; hence they are all really attractive prices. He is 4/1 for Sunday’s race but as big as 14/1 for the RSA, so it makes sense to put him into our Lucky 15 this week. Like Finian’s Rainbow, jumping always looked to be his game, and he can prove this on Sunday and at Cheltenham.
Finally, the Triumph is notoriously tricky to have an ante-post bet in, and most bookmakers currently go 7-1 the field. One horse I like the look of is David Pipe’s Kazzene, who won impressively on his British racecourse debut at Kempton in mid-January. He looks good value at 14s and is likely to go straight to the festival.
Next week we will take a look to see if we can find some good things in the hugely competitive Cheltenham handicaps.
TWO TO WATCH
IT’S Hennessy Gold Cup day at Leopardstown on Sunday and Joncol is taken to repeat his success of last year by beating favourite Pride of Dulcote. As already stated, my preference is for Quel Espirit in the PJ Moriarty, but it will be interesting to see who Paul Townend rides, as Mikael D’Haguenet is also confirmed to run.
Cheltenham ante-post
Novice Lucky 15 Tips
Zaidpour, Supreme Novices, 8/1
Finian’s Rainbow, Arkle, 4/1
Quel Espirit, RSA, 14/1
Kazzene, Triumph Hurdle, 14/1
