Michael ComminsTEN years ago this week, I was the only reporter to ‘call’ it for Independent candidate Dana Rosemary Scallon in advance of the Connacht-Ulster European election. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael did not see it coming. This week, I’m going to ‘call’ it again. When the votes are counted in Castlebar on Sunday, I expect Declan Ganley to be a new MEP for the North West region, alongside Jim Higgins and Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher.
This is the only constituency that takes in parts of all four provinces. Longford and Westmeath make their debut in the North West for the first time. Clare was added in advance of the last election five years ago while Donegal, Cavan and Monahan, together with the five Connacht continues comprise what was known as the old Connacht-Ulster region.
It is a vast territory and one where opinion polls have not a hope in hell of forecasting the outcome. This is a strange election and the establishment candidates in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are on edge. The result of the Lisbon Treaty vote last year sent shock waves through the main parties, they completely misjudged the mood of many of their own supporters.
There is a huge ‘disconnect’ with Europe among the electorate. Believe it or not, many people have little idea who is running for Europe. Some who will vote in the Council elections will not waste much time looking at the European ballot paper. Their votes are likely to go anywhere.
Who is the most talked about candidate in the North West constituency in this campaign? Declan Ganley. ‘How will Ganley do?‘ is the most asked question by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil people up and down the constituency. He is at the heart of every conversation in this constituency, a good place to be for any candidate.
Together with Padraig MacLochlainn of Sinn Fein, he represents the views of the big majority of people who cast their votes against the Lisbon Treaty. In Mayo, 62% voted “No” and yet Fianna Fail and Fine Gael top brass refuse to accept the democratic expression of the people. Is it any wonder the people have lost all trust in the governing elites who refuse point-blank to accept our verdict?
Fine Gael look set to retain their seat but talk of two is out of the question. Jim Higgins, coming from close to the heart of this vast sprawling territory, is best placed to retain his seat for Fine Gael. However, the Ballyhaunis man will not secure the 20% suggested by the first MRBI opinion poll and, in the past two weeks, has been facing some lively internal opposition from party colleague, Senator Joe O’Reilly from Cavan.
O’Reilly has come out fighting and has certainly upped his profile, focussing his attacks on Paschal Mooney (Fianna Fáil) and Marian Harkin (Independent), especially in relation to farming issues. The Cavan man has shown he is a doughty campaigner and could pick up a surprisingly big vote. However, Higgins remains in prime position to take a seat. The decision of outgoing Fianna Fail MEP Sean Ó Neachtain to opt out of the race saw the party make an eleventh hour appeal to Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher from Donegal to come to the rescue. Paschal Mooney from Leitrim had also been nominated and tension mounted when the party was unable to persuade a candidate to run in Galway or Clare. Fianna Fáil is campaigning in this election with the most ridiculous strategy possible, two candidates in neighbouring counties to the north, leaving the whole southern end without a runner.
Fianna Fáil sources suggest that Gallagher is well ahead of Mooney in securing the party vote around the constituency and it looks as if he will take a seat.
Marian Harkin from Sligo won a seat as an Independent back in 2004. Despite an early opinion poll showing her featuring well, it is hard to detect such support on the ground. Certainly, she does not have the ‘troops’ that the Ganley campaign has going door to door in towns around the counties and she has been depending to a large extent on radio appearances and some public meetings to maintain a prominent presence in the last three weeks.
On the defeated Yes side in the Lisbon Treaty, Marian does not appear to have the same momentum which carried her through in 2004. She is also based in the crowded northern end of the constituency which make things more difficult for her.
In 2004, Pearse O’Doherty of Sinn Fein came very close to taking a seat. This time, Padraic MacLochlainn, also from Donegal, is putting in a solid performance. He has impressed people from all sides in this campaign with his commonsense and down to earth manner. No doubt, he stands an excellent chance of being elected to Dáil Éireann at the next General Election in his home county. This time out, the addition of Westmeath and Longford are relatively weak areas for Sinn Féin. However, if he was to get ahead of Pat Gallagher, he could be right back in the race. If MacLochlainn is eliminated late in the campaign, Pat ‘The Cope’ and Declan Ganley (if they are both ahead of him) look set to be the chief beneficiaries, ‘The Cope’ from a geographical point of view and Ganley from the Lisbon Treaty angle.
Susan O’Keeffe is flying the flag for Labour. She is based in Sligo and will be hoping for a decent performance. Five other candidates are standing as Independents, Kiltimagh native John Higgins, Michael McNamara, a farmer and barrister from Clare, and Noel McCullough, Tom King and Fiachra O Luain.
Which takes us back once more to Declan Ganley. The Libertas leader made a massive impression during the Lisbon Treaty campaign. Such is the focus of attention on the man who resides some miles from Tuam that numerous foreign media crews have already booked hotels and accommodation in the general Castlebar area to cover the count on Sunday. Libertas are fielding a few hundred candidates in many countries across Europe and the interest from the major channels is huge.
In the final days of this campaign, geography will play a major role. Declan Ganley is the only big name south of a middle line drawn through the North West constituency from west to east. One would have to assume that if any other candidate found themselves so well placed, and in Galway, the biggest populated county of all eleven counties, it would represent a huge advantage. On that basis, plus the fact that the vast bulk of the Dana team from the previous two European elections are ‘on side’ with the Libertas leader, I believe Ganley, whose mother is from Achill, will repeat the Dana sensation of ten years ago.
Should Fianna Fáil hit a seriously bad day, then both Ganley and Harkin could make it across the line along with Jim Higgins. No one knows for sure what shocks lie in store when the boxes are opened on Saturday.
